Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 04 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 04 Jul: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.0 0000UT possible lower West Pacific M2.1 0113UT possible lower West Pacific M3.7 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.4 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.8 0807UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.0 0852UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M3.2 1112UT possible lower European M3.2 1351UT possible lower European M1.1 1606UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M1.9 1848UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.5 1936UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American X1.3 2041UT probable all East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 0/0

Solar Forecast

(last updated 04 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 0/0 0/0 0/0 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Jul was R3, with a total of sixteen solar flares. A majority of these events were M1, and often occurring in pairs, with the largest flare of the day being an isolated X1.3 whose flux was shared between two regions. Almost all flares originated from active sunspot region (AR) 4479 (N17W76, beta-gamma-delta) with the occasional sympathetic flare response from AR 4478 (S06W59, beta-gamma). A new region AR 4482 (S06E69, beta) also contributed to the X1.3 class flare today. Solar activity is expected to be mostly R1-R2 on 5-Jul, as AR4479, which was partly responsible for the X1.0 flare, is expected to rotate out of view by 6-Jul. Activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 6-7 Jul due to new region AR 4482. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 4-Jul. A CME was likely launched from near AR 4482 in association with the X1.3 flare, although no analysis can be carried out at this stage due to lack of images. A CME mentioned in yesterday's report has been further analysed as is expected to have a glancing blow at Earth late on 7-Jul from 1800 UT. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 4-Jul, although a weak increase to the >10 MeV protons was observed peaking at 1.76 pfu. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 5-7 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 4-Jul was disturbed due to ongoing CME effects from 3-Jul. The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to 640 km/s and is currently steady near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 23 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +23 to -19 nT. The solar wind was oriented with southward Bz from 0050 to 0910 UT. The solar wind environment is expected to remain disturbed on 5-Jul as further CME arrivals are expected. The disturbance may continue into 6-Jul, with quiet conditions early on 7-Jul. Another disturbance is expected late on 7-Jul due to an anticipated CME arrival.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.