Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 14 May 2024 23:30 UT)
Activity 14 May: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.5 0148UT possible lower West Pacific X1.7 0209UT probable all E. Asia/Aust. M1.1 1008UT possible lower European X1.2 1255UT probable all European X8.7 1651UT probable all South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 220/170
Solar Forecast
(last updated 14 May 2024 23:30 UT)
15 May 16 May 17 May Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 205/156 195/147 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at the R3 level due to an X1.7 flare at 14/0209UT, an X1.2 flare at 14/1255UT and an X8.7 flare at 14/1651UT. In addition, there was an M1.1 flare at 14/1008UT and an M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT. There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3664 (S20W87, beta-gamma-delta) rotated off over the UT day, but was still responsible for all three X flares observed on 14-May, flaring could still be observed from this region over 15-May as it continues to rotate away. AR3670 (N15W35, beta), AR3671 (N20W33, beta) and AR3679 (S12E49, beta) showed spot development over the UT day but remain magnetically simple and inactive. AR3680 (N18E49, alpha) is associated with the M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT and is stable. All other sunspot groups are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at around S24E09 with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 15-May, with a chance of G3. R0-R1 conditions are expected on 16-17 May once AR3664 has rotated further behind the western limb. S2 solar radiation conditions were observed on 14-May from 14/0335UT to 14/0640UT. S1 conditions were observed for the remainder of the UT day. S1 conditions are expected to persist into 15-May with a declining trend. S0 conditions, with a chance of S1 are expected on 16-May and S0 conditions are expected on 17-May. Several CMEs were observed over the UT day. A west directed CME from 14/0212UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with the X1.7 flare at 14/0209UT. This flare is not considered geoeffective. An east directed CME from 14/0448UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with an eruption behind the east limb at around S15 visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 14/0415UT. This CME is considered a far side event. A northeast directed partial halo CME from 14/1012UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with an eruption on the disk at around N25E38 from 14/0935UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. There is also movement in the corona behind the northeastern limb from 14/0937UT visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. Modelling indicates this CME presents a chance of an impact on 16-May 2300UT +/- 12 hours. A west directed CME from 14/1312UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with the X1.2 flare at 14/1255UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A fast, west directed CME from 14/1723UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with the X8.7 flare at 14/1651UT. An eruption is visible from 14/1656UT in SDO imagery. Modelling suggests this CME presents a chance of a glancing impact at 16/1700UT. A fast, east directed CME from 14/1753UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This event is associated with an eruption on the disk at around N15E70 visible from 14/1725UT in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery and associated with the M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT. Modelling suggests this CME will pass behind the Earth. The solar wind was elevated on UT day 14-May. The solar wind speed ranged from 598 to 478 km/s and is currently near 543 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected on 15-May due to an impact from a CME first observed on 13-May. A further increase is expected on 16-May due to possible combined impacts from a pair of CMEs observed on 14-May. The solar wind is expected to be elevated on 17-May.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
