Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 12 May 2021 23:30 UT)

Activity 12 May: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 75/13

Solar Forecast

(last updated 12 May 2021 23:30 UT)

13 May 14 May 15 May Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 80/20 COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 May with a C1.5 flare at 0935 UT from region 2822. There are currently two active regions on the visible disk of the Sun, AR2822 (Cai-BetaGamma) and AR2823 (Hax-Alpha). There were no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance of more C-class flares and a small chance of M-class flares for the next three UT days 13-15 May. This is due to the flaring potential of AR2822 which is currently situated near CMD at N17E10. On UT day 12 May, the solar wind speed increased suddenly from background levels up to 440 km/s at 0548 UT and then continued increasing up to 525 km/s. This elevation of solar wind speed to moderately enhanced levels was most likely caused by the arrival of the 9 May CME from a DSF. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 23 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +23/-20 nT and was mostly southwards during 1022-1429 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately enhanced on UT day 13 May and then gradually decrease back to nominal levels on UT days 14-15 May.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.