Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 08 Dec 2025 23:40 UT)
Activity 08 Dec: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.4 0012UT possible lower West Pacific M2.0 0036UT possible lower West Pacific X1.1 0501UT probable all E. Asia/Aust. M1.8 0654UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.0 1306UT possible lower European M3.1 2117UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.2 2228UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 186/139
Solar Forecast
(last updated 08 Dec 2025 23:40 UT)
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 175/129 COMMENT: On UT day 8-Dec solar activity was at the R3 level. An X1.1 flare was observed from AR4298 (S17W59, alpha), peaking at 0501UT. Additionally, there were several M-class flares observed. There are currently eight numbered and two unnumbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Active region AR4294 (S14W43, beta-gamma-delta) has shown mild growth. AR4304 (N25W09, beta-gamma) has also seen mild growth. AR4299 (N23W10, beta-delta) continues to decay. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R2-R3. This is due to the presence of regions on the disk which have produced X and M-class flares, which will remain on disk over the next three days. Two Earth-directed CMEs were observed on the 08-Dec, one being associated with the X-class flare. These have been modelled and are anticipated to arrive early on the 11-Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 8-Dec. Mostly S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 8-Dec, however further solar flares from AR4299 may cause S1 conditions as it transits the western side of the solar disk. On UT day 8-Dec the solar wind environment was steady. The solar wind speed was on a decline from 455 km/s to near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was -5 to +7 nT. A CME is expected to arrive early on 9-Dec, which will likely result in an increase to the solar wind speed.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
