Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 17 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)

Activity 17 Nov: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 122/75

Solar Forecast

(last updated 17 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)

18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78 COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 17-Nov, with no significant flare events observed. There are currently four numbered Active Regions on the solar disk, with AR4284 (S07W05, Beta) the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has exhibited some growth over the past 24 hours, while the other three numbered regions were stable or in decline. Two new active regions rotated over the eastern limb at at S17E70 (alpha), S21E70 (beta), which appear stable. A further small unnumbered sunspot region appeared at S09W10 (alpha) late in the UT day. Solar activity over the period 18-20 Nov is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 due to high level C-class flaring activity from AR4284. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed over the past 24 hours, with the proton flux declining from the slightly elevated levels towards background flux. Solar radiation storm conditions are forecast to be at the S0 level over the period 18-20 Nov. Two coronal mass ejections occurred over the previous UT day, of which neither were considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed has declined over the past 24 hours, ranging between 450-550 km/s throughout the latter half of the day, and is currently at 480km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 7 nT during 17-Nov, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -5 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed will likely remain at this level over the 18-20 Nov, with only limited high speed wind stream effects currently observed from a northern coronal hole.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.