Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 09 Nov 2025 23:31 UT)
Activity 09 Nov: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors X1.7 0735UT probable all Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 176/130
Solar Forecast
(last updated 09 Nov 2025 23:31 UT)
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Nov was at the R3 level, with an X1.7 flare observed at 09/0735UT, produced by AR4274 (N25W13, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region has shown redistribution of its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR4277 (S05E27, beta) has exhibited mild, intermediate spot development over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2, chance R3 levels over 10-12 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 09-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 10-12 Nov. A geoeffective CME was observed at 09/0738UT, on both LASCO and STEREO-A imagery. This is considered to be associated with the X1.7 flare from AR4274. Modelling anticipates this CME will arrive at 11/1700UT +/- 12 hours. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Nov declined, mostly ranging from 453 to 624 km/s and is currently near 537 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to generally decline on 10-Nov as CME effects abate. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 11-12 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of an Earth-directed CME first observed on the 09-Nov and another, weak glancing CME first observed on the 07-Nov.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
