Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 13 Jun 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 13 Jun: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 122/75

Solar Forecast

(last updated 13 Jun 2026 23:30 UT)

14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 122/75 120/72 118/70 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 13-Jun was at the R0 level. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. Active region (AR) 4465 (N08E04, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and continues to produce the occasional low level C-class flare. An unnumbered region has recently developed on the disk at around N08E55 with alpha magnetic complexity. All numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity over 14-16 Jun is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Jun. No significantly geoeffective CMEs have been observed on 13-Jun. A west directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 13/1326UT. This event is associated with an on disk eruption at around S20W70, visible from 13/1252UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. Modelling suggests this CME will pass ahead of the Earth. Two CMEs from 12-Jun have been further analysed with new imagery. A faint, east directed CME, visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 12/1638UT has been modelled. This CME may produce a glancing impact with Earth on 15-Jun at 0800UT +/- 12 hours. An east directed CME, visible in SOHO imagery from 12/1936UT is expected to pass behind the Earth. The solar wind environment saw a step enhancement at around 13/0950UT, suggesting a weak CME impact took place. The solar wind speed jumped up with this enhancement and then declined over the remainder of the day. The solar wind speed mostly ranged between 680 km/s and 525 km/s and is currently near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) ranged between +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline slowly over 14-Jun as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane, although an increase in low energy protons measured at ACE suggests an unexpected, weak CME impact may occur on 14-Jun. A moderate increase is expected on 15-Jun due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 12-Jun. A further increase is possible on 16-Jun due to a small coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.