Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 11 May 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 11 May: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 116/68

Solar Forecast

(last updated 11 May 2026 23:30 UT)

12 May 13 May 14 May Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-May was at the R0 level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently four active regions on the visible solar disk, with Active Region (AR) 4432 (N12W65, beta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has shown some minor spot decay over the past UT day, as it continues to rotate closer to the western limb. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 over 12-14 May, due to the past flare history of AR 4436 (N20E44, beta). S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 11-May, with the proton flux remaining at background levels. S0 solar proton conditions are forecast for 12-14 May. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery over the past UT day. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304A starting at 11/0632UT centred on S50E35. A south-directed, low-velocity CME was observed associated with this event from 11/0748UT. This CME was modelled to pass below the Earth, and is therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed was light across UT day 11-May, with wind speeds ranging from 360 to 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -6 and +7 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain close to background levels over 12-14 May, with some mild enhancements possible during this period.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.