Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 07 Oct 2025 23:30 UT)

Activity 07 Oct: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 131/85

Solar Forecast

(last updated 07 Oct 2025 23:30 UT)

08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 122/75 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Oct was R0, although a C9 level solar flare was observed at 2008 UT from AR4236 (N12W70, beta). There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All sunspots are currently either stable or in decay, with no region dominating as particularly magnetically complex. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance of R1 over 8-10 Oct. A filament eruption was observed from near AR4244 (S21W39, alpha) from 07/0549 UT. An associated CME directed to the solar southeast was observed from 07/0700 UT but is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 8-10 Oct. The solar wind environment on UT day 7-Oct was mildly enhanced. The solar wind speed ranged from 483 to 390 km/s and is on a gentle decline from near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -9nT. An extended period of southward Bz was observed from 0700-1500 UT. The solar wind may be mildly disturbed on UT day 8-Oct due to possible weak CME disturbances, although this is low confidence. The solar wind is expected to be mostly quiet over 9-10 Oct, although may become enhanced due to a coronal hole by the end of the period.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.