Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 11 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 11 Oct: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 122/75

Solar Forecast

(last updated 11 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R0 level, with only low level C-class flares observed. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15E50, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has shown mild growth in its leader spot. Region 4549 (N11W64, beta) has continued to decay as it nears the western limb. Newly numbered region 4553 (N07E62, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb and has exhibited mild growth its trailer spot. An unnumbered region is visible near N08E72 (beta) and has shown recent spot growth. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Oct due to the size and complexity of regions 4549 and 4551. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 11-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 12-14 Oct. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Oct decreased, ranging between 680 and 505 km/s, and is currently near 505 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 0 to +15 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease on 12-Oct due to waning CME effects, then increase on 13-Oct due to coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole and an equatorial coronal hole. A decrease in the solar wind speed is expected on 14-Oct.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.