Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 05 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)
Activity 05 Nov: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M7.4 1119UT probable lower European M8.6 2207UT probable lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 147/101
Solar Forecast
(last updated 05 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Nov was at the R2 level due to an M7.4 flare at 05/1119UT and an M8.6 flare at 05/2207UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR4274 (N25E41, beta-gamma-delta) is by far the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar disk. This region was responsible for both of the R2 flares over the UT day and showed development. Two unnumbered regions have recently rotated onto the solar disk. A small region with alpha magnetic complexity is visible at around N11E75. A larger and more magnetically complex region is visible at around S12E75 and is likely responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04-Nov. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 06-08 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 05-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 06-08 Nov. A partial halo CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 05/1100UT, associated with the M7.4 flare at 05/1119UT. An eruption on the disk is visible in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery from 05/1112UT at around N25E47. Modelling indicates this CME is geoeffective, with an estimated arrival time of 07/0200UT +/- 9 hours. Radio spectra data indicates there is a CME associated with the M8.6 flare at 05/2207UT. An eruption on the disk is visible in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery from 05/2200UT at around N31E42. This CME is visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 05/2238UT, however not enough imagery is yet available for a full analysis. Analysis will be performed when more coronagraph imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Nov increased, ranging from 340 to 440 km/s and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -17 to +8 nT. Two periods of sustained significant southward IMF conditions was observed over the intervals 05/0000UT to 05/1000UT and 05/1530UT to the time of writing. The solar wind speed is expected to further increase over 06-Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. An anticipated CME impact at the beginning of 07-Nov is expected to produce a further increase in solar wind speed. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 08-Nov.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
