Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 14 Oct 2024 23:31 UT)
Activity 14 Oct: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M3.4 0018UT possible lower West Pacific M1.8 1337UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 182/135
Solar Forecast
(last updated 14 Oct 2024 23:31 UT)
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R1 level due to an M3.4 flare at 14/0018UT and an M1.8 flare at 14/1337. There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3848 (N10W89, beta) was responsible for both R1 flare events on 14-Oct, however this region appears stable and is expected to rotate off the solar disk on 15-Oct. AR3852 (S10W25, beta) and AR3855 (N14W45, beta) showed spot development over the UT day, but both are currently magnetically simple and flare quiet. All other active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 15-Oct and at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 on 16-17 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 14-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A pair of northwest directed CMEs are visible from 14/0048UT and 14/1436UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. These CMEs are associated with the M-class flares on 14-Oct and both are associated with coronal movement behind the western limb. Both of these CMEs are not considered geoeffective. A west directed CME is visible from 14/0942UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated with a filament lift off visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 14/0840UT at around S25 on the western limb. Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Oct exhibited a declining trend, ranging from 375 to 460 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. A minor shock was observed in the IMF at 14/1719UT followed by predominantly -Bz conditions from 14/2005UT. This is indicative of a minor CME impact. A slight increase in solar wind speed is possible on 15-16 Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere in a geoeffective position and a possible glancing CME impact. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels on 17-Oct.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
