Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 02 Dec 2023 23:31 UT)

Activity 02 Dec: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 148/116

Solar Forecast

(last updated 02 Dec 2023 23:31 UT)

03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 158/112 155/109 155/109 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Dec was at the R0 level, with several low level C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3500 (S18W55, gamma) is the most magnetically complex and largest region on the solar disk and has decayed over the UT day. AR3494 (S17W80, alpha) is stable and will soon rotate over the western limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Dec. A broad southwest directed CME was observed late on 01-Dec from 2236UT, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery. This CME is associated with the M1.0 flare from AR3500 at 01/2121UT. Modelling indicates this CME is mostly missing the Earth, however a glancing impact is possible late on 04-Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed on UT day 02-Dec. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Dec decreased, ranging from 416 to 525 km/s and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions ended at 02/0240UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline on 03-Dec, then increase over 04-05 Dec due to a large equatorial coronal hole now in the western hemisphere.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.