Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 14 May 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 14 May: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 106/55

Solar Forecast

(last updated 14 May 2026 23:30 UT)

15 May 16 May 17 May Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-May was at the R0 level, with several C-class flares observed. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active Region (AR) 4436 (N20E04, beta) was mostly stable over the UT day. AR 4438 (N19W42, beta) has exhibited spot development. AR 4435 (N23W66, beta) has shown spot growth over the 24-hour period. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17 May, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 14-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 15-17 May. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 14/1145UT centred near N30W40. No CME has been observed associated with this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-May decreased, ranging from 460 to 375 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 15-16 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.