Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 10 Nov 2025 23:47 UT)

Activity 10 Nov: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors X1.2 0919UT probable all Mid East/Indian M1.5 1958UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 180/133

Solar Forecast

(last updated 10 Nov 2025 23:47 UT)

11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 182/135 182/135 182/135 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R3 level, with an X1.2 flare observed at 10/0919UT, produced by AR4274 (N25W25, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4274 remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region has developed slightly. AR4280 (S08E67, beta) is new on disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 11-13 Nov. S1 solar radiation conditions were observed on UT day 10-Nov. S0-S1 solar proton conditions are expected over 11-13 Nov. A geoeffective CME was observed at 10/0936UT, on both LASCO and STEREO-A imagery. This is considered to be associated with the X1.2 flare from AR4274. Modelling anticipates this CME will arrive shortly after a geoeffective CME first observed on 9-Nov. These CMEs will arrive beginning at 12/0200UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Nov varied, mostly ranging from 477 to 592 km/s and is currently near 469 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to generally decline on 11-Nov. The solar wind speed is expected to increase in response to two CMEs forecast to arrive early on 12-Oct. The solar wind speed will remain elevated on 13-Oct.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.