Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 30 Sep 2022 23:30 UT)

Activity 30 Sep: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.0 0402UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M3.0 1622UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M1.4 1734UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 137/91

Solar Forecast

(last updated 30 Sep 2022 23:30 UT)

01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Sep was at R1 levels, with three M-class flares. An M1.0 flare occurred at 30/0402UT, an M2.9 flare occurred at 30/1622UT and an M1.4 flare occurred at 30/1735UT. All M-class flares were produced by returning region AR3098, which is currently on the eastern limb at N25. There are currently five numbered sunspots on the solar disk. Significant growth was observed in the trailer spots of AR31110 (N16W18, beta-gamma). All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 01-03 Oct, due to the returning region AR3089 which previously produced M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. Two equatorial coronal holes are currently near geoeffective locations. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Sep was moderate and ranged from 460 to 591 km/s and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. Bz was southward intermittently between 30/0619 and 30/1135UT. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated over 01-03 Sep.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.