FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Saturday, Oct 01 2016 07:05 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 30 Sep 2016 23:38 UT)

Activity 30 Sep: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 81/22

Solar Forecast

(last updated 30 Sep 2016 23:38 UT)

01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT day, 30 September, with no notable flares. The only active sunspot region (Region 2597) will soon rotate to the rearward side of the sun. Thus, the three day outlook (1-3 October) is for very low solar activity with only slight chance of C-class flares. A CME was observed around 29/2024 in available coronagraph imagery. Our preliminary investigation indicates that this CME could be triggered from active Region 2597. Thus based on location of CME source region (S14W78), it is unlikely that this CME will impact Earth. Further confirmation will be provided upon completion of the model runs. The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours had exhibited a gradual declining trend, changing from ~800 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 600 km/s by 30/2300 UT. This is suggestive of the beginning of the waning effects of the coronal hole. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards since 30/1530 UT. Bt was steady near 5 nT. The two day outlook (1 -2 October) is for the solar winds to continue to trend towards lower speeds as the coronal effects wane.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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