Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 21 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)
Activity 21 Jan: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.1 0135UT possible lower West Pacific M3.4 0712UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 188/141
Solar Forecast
(last updated 21 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day 21-Jan, with an M1.1 flare from Active Region (AR) 4345 (S16W11, beta-gamma) at 21/0135UT, and an M3.4 flare from AR 4349 (S11E54, beta) at 21/0712UT. These active regions are two of ten currently visible on the solar disk, with the aforementioned AR 4345 being the most magnetically complex. This region experienced a redistribution of minor spots but appeared mostly stable over the past UT day. Active regions 4350 (N20E34, beta-gamma-delta) and 4351 (S04E26, beta) both grew over the past 24 hours, with all other regions stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at the R1-R2 level over 22-24 Jan, given the flare history of several active regions currently on the solar surface. Solar radiation storm conditions reached the S1 level over 21-Jan, with the solar proton flux slowly declining across the UT day. Proton flux began the UT day at 42 pfu, and declined below the S1 threshold of 10 pfu at 21/1830UT. The proton flux has continued to decline, and is currently at 6.1 pfu. S0 conditions, with a chance of S1, are forecast over 22-Jan. These conditions will decline to S0 over 23-24 Jan, as the solar proton flux continues to trend towards background levels. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined over 21-Jan, as the ongoing effects of a CME that impacted Earth on 19-Jan continue to ease. The wind speed began the UT day at 820-850 km/s, and declined to speeds ranging between 570-600 km/s over the last three hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 13 nT at the start of the UT day. The north-south component (Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -8 and +4 nT, with prolonged periods of southward Bz observed from the start of the UT day until 21/1140UT. Further declines in the solar wind speed are expected over UT day 22-24 Jan, as the CME effects continue to abate. These declining effects will be replaced by coronal hole high speed wind streams, which are expected to be geoeffective during this period.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
