Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 22 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 22 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 194/146

Solar Forecast

(last updated 22 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 192/144 192/144 190/143 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 22-Jan, with a C9.5 flare from Active Region (AR) 4350 (N20E20, alpha) at 22/1954UT being the largest observed. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the disk, with AR 4345 (S16W25, beta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has exhibited some minor growth over the previous UT day, with regions 4350, 4351 (S04E11, beta), and 4354 (S13E14, beta) also showing growth over the last 24 hours. A new unnumbered region has rotated over the eastern limb at (S11E80). While this region is coincident with a possible return of previously flare-active region 4325, this new region appears small and magnetically simple. All other regions on the disk are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to reach R1-R2 levels over the period 23-25 Jan. Solar radiation storm conditions briefly reached the S1 level at 22/0500UT, with the proton flux ranging between 2.16-10.6 pfu throughout the day. The solar proton flux is expected to decline over 23-Jan, with S0 solar radiation storm conditions are forecast, with a chance of reaching S1. S0 conditions are forecast over Jan 24-25, as the proton flux continues to trend toward background levels. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours. A small, narrow CME associated with a filament eruption was observed in SOHO coronagraph imagery at 22/0224UT. Subsequent modelling has determined this event will not impact the Earth. The solar wind continued to decline on UT day 22-Jan, with the wind speed declining from 600-630 km/s early in the UT day to 500-530 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 11 nT during 22-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +8 nT during this time. An extended period of southward Bz began at 22/2045UT and is ongoing. The solar wind is expected to slowly trend towards background levels over 23-25 Jan as the effects of a previous CME that impacted Earth on 19-Jan continue to subside, and a coronal high speed wind stream moves out of a geoeffective position.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.