FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Thursday, Dec 08 2016 11:52 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 07 Dec 2016 23:47 UT)

Activity 07 Dec: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 77/16

Solar Forecast

(last updated 07 Dec 2016 23:47 UT)

08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with no notable flares. Very Low to Low activity is expected for the next 2 days, 8-9 December. A 17 degree long disappearing solar filament was observed, starting at 07/0953UT. This event seemed to have triggered a CME, which was first observed at 07/1048 in LASCO C2 imagery. The possible impact of this CME on Earth will be determined after the completion of our model runs. The solar wind was ~330km/s for most of the UT day (7 Dec) but began to enhance from 07/1830. It is currently ~540km/s. These enhancements in solar wind speeds are due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams from a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF total was steady near 5 nT up to 07/1200 UT and thereon gradually increased to ~20 nT. This coincided with the arrival of the co-rotation interaction region associated with the coronal hole. The Bz component varied from -5 to +16 nT, with a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz starting from 07/0300UT to 07/100UT. Solar wind speed is likely to continue to increase over the next 3 days, 8-10 December, as the coronal hole effects are expected to persist. In the previous rotation, this coronal hole caused solar wind speeds to be in excess of 500 km/s for 4 consecutive days. Similar effects are expected in this rotation.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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