Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 12 Nov 2025 23:31 UT)
Activity 12 Nov: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 163/117
Solar Forecast
(last updated 12 Nov 2025 23:31 UT)
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov Activity R2 chance R3 R2 chance R3 R2 chance R3 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109 COMMENT: Solar on-disk conditions were observed to be stable for the day 12-Nov. No new significant flares were observed, and R0 conditions were observed throughout the UT day. Seven named sunspot regions can be seen on the solar disk, with AR4274 (N25W51, Beta-Gamma-Delta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. This spot appeared mostly stable over the previous UT day. Active region AR4280 (S08E40, Beta) exhibited growth, with the development of trailer spots. All other spots were stable or in decay. Solar activity for UT Nov-13 to Nov-15 is expected to be at the R2 level, with a chance of R3, given the ongoing activity associated with AR4274. Solar proton conditions peaked at the S3 level during UT day Nov-12, with a peak flux of 1460 pfu seen in the >10MeV energy band proton flux at 12/0210UT. This rise coincided with the arrival of two previously modelled coronal mass ejections. This solar proton flux is now in decline, with S1 solar proton conditions expected for UT 13-Nov, declining to S0-S1 conditions on Nov-14, and to S0 conditions for Nov-15. No new CMEs were observed over the UT day Nov-12. The solar wind was disturbed over the day, due to the arrival of three CMEs at 11/2220UT, 11/2331UT and 12/1852UT. The maximum solar wind speed was 969km/h, but was highly variable, as solar wind speed measurement readings from ACE and DSCOVR were affected by the CMEs. The magnetic field strength peaked at a Bt of 63nT at 12/0035UT, with a peak southward polarisation Bz of -55nt, observed at 11/2357UT. This solar wind speed is expected to stabilise and decline over UT Nov-13, trending towards to background conditions on 14-15 Nov.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
