Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 12 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 12 Jul: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.1 0811UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 107/57

Solar Forecast

(last updated 12 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul Activity R0, chance of R1 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66 COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R1 level on UT day 12-Jul, with an M1.1 flare from Active Region (AR) 4485 (S09W86, beta) peaking at 12/0811UT. This region is one of four sunspot regions on the visible disk, and will soon rotate over the western limb. AR 4482 (S08W32, beta) is the largest region on the visible disk, and has exhibited mild growth in trailing spots over the past UT day. The other regions on the disk are both in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Jul, with a chance of R1 on 13-Jul before AR 4485 rotates off the disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were reported throughout 12-Jul, with the solar proton flux at background levels. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are forecast over 13-15 Jul. No significant coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts were observed over 12-Jul. A medium-velocity west-directed CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 12/0114UT following a C5.9 flare from AR 4485. A second low-velocity northwest-directed CME was also visible in SOHO from 12/1448UT following a filament liftoff visible in GONG/Halpha imaging at N03W57 from 12/1230UT. Modelling of these events suggests both CMEs will pass ahead of the Earth. A small amount of material may connect with the Earth on 15-Jul, but this is not expected to be significant. The solar wind speed declined over 12-Jul, as influences from the coronal hole high speed wind stream continued to wane. The solar wind speed declined from 570 km/s early in the UT day to currently range between 460 and 480 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) increased during 12-Jul, peaking at 8 nT, likely due to the glancing impact of a CME first observed on 09-Jul. The north-south component (Bz) of the IMF ranged between -7 and +5 nT over the UT day, with an extended period of significant southward Bz between 12/0930UT and 12/1130UT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 13-15 Jul, as the effects of the CME impact and high speed wind stream continue to abate. A small increase in the wind speed is possible on 15-Jul due to the glancing impacts of the CMEs first observed on 12-Jul.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.