Solar
FORECAST SOL: Disturbed red MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Tuesday, Mar 19 2024 03:07 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 18 Mar 2024 23:30 UT)

Activity 18 Mar: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.7 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.0 0414UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M6.7 1919UT probable lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 177/131

Solar Forecast

(last updated 18 Mar 2024 23:30 UT)

19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 168/122 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Mar was at the R2 level due to an M6.7 flare at 18/1919UT from AR3615 (S12E61, gamma). Two low level M-class flares were also observed, with an M2.7 at 18/0332UT and an M1.0 at 18/0414UT. There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3615 is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3607 (S17W34, beta) and AR3616 (N01W30, beta) have also shown spot development. AR3614 (N16E56, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3608 (N09W25, beta) has exhibited minor growth. All other active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 19-21 Mar. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 18-Mar, with the 10 MeV proton flux gradually declining to background levels over the UT day. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 19-21 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Mar was mostly stable, ranging from 280 to 355 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. A minor shock in the solar wind speed was observed at 18/1941UT, indicative of a weak CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -9 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was observed from 18/1815 and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels on 19-Mar before mildly increasing over 20-21 Mar due to a CME arrival from a filament eruption first observed on 17-Mar.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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