Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 03 Feb 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 03 Feb: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.5 02/2327UT possible lower West Pacific M1.5 0149UT possible lower West Pacific M1.7 0422UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M2.6 0555UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M7.2 0701UT probable lower Mid East/Indian M3.7 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M3.4 1005UT possible lower European M1.3 1100UT possible lower European M1.3 1120UT possible lower European X1.5 1408UT probable all South American/ Atlantic M7.2 1455UT probable lower South American/ Atlantic M2.5 1805UT possible lower Pacific M2.0 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M3.4 2309UT possible lower West Pacific Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 178/131

Solar Forecast

(last updated 03 Feb 2026 23:30 UT)

04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R3 level on UT day 03-Feb due to an X1.8 flare at 03/1408UT. There were also 13 M-Class flares observed on 03-Feb, with the largest being two M7.2 flares at 03/0701UT and 03/1456UT. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4366 (N16E11, beta-gamma-delta) is, by far, the largest and most magnetically complex visible region. It was responsible for all 14 flares (at M and X-Class levels) on 03-Feb and has shown some spot separation, although still retains two delta spots. All other regions appear either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 04-06 Feb. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level on UT day 03-Feb. S0 conditions are expected on 04-Feb, with a chance of S1 over 05-06 Feb as AR4366 rotates towards a geoeffective position. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed on UT day 03-Feb. The solar wind speed was steady on 03-Feb, mostly ranging between 280 km/s and 335 km/s across the UT day and is currently near 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -4 and +5 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels on 04-Feb, a mild increase is expected in the second half of 05-Feb due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 02-Feb. The wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated on 06-Feb.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.