FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Disturbed red ION: Normal green Looking for something? Site search go to search page
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Saturday, Feb 13 2016 23:36 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 13 Feb 2016 23:30 UT)

Activity 13 Feb: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.8 1524UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 110/60

Solar Forecast

(last updated 13 Feb 2016 23:30 UT)

14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60 COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT day, 13 Feb, with one M-class flare and a number of smaller C-class flares. These flares were all from active Region 2497, which is currently located past the solar centre at N15W31. The strongest M1.8 flare occurred at 13/1524 UT from Region 2497 and it did not seem to trigger a coronal mass ejection (CME). Due to flare potential from Region 2497, the 2-day outlook (14-15 Feb) is for low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and chance of M-class flares. The 11 Feb CME associated with the long duration C8.9 flare is expected to arrive at Earth on early UT day Feb 15. No other earth-directed CME were observed on the satellite imagery during the past 24 hours. The solar wind has enhanced gradually from 350 km/s to 450 km/s during the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -10 nT and 17 nT. Bt was between 5 and 20 nT. The magnitudes of both Bz and Bt has declined gradually during the past 24 hrs, and are currently at 6 nT and 0 nT. These fluctuations in the solar wind speeds are associated with the waning effects of a small equatorial coronal hole. The outlook for UT day 14-15 Feb is for the solar winds to exhibit enhancement due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME on early UT day 15 Feb or thereabout. Elevated levels of solar wind speeds are expected to continue after UT day 15 Feb as a large southern hemisphere coronal hole will soon be approaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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