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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, Dec 02 2021 03:43 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 01 Dec 2021 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 01 Dec: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 86/29 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 80/20 COMMENT: On UT day 01 December, solar activity was very low. There are currently five numbered regions on the visible solar disc, the largest being region 2900 (S26W73 at 01/21:35UT). Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 02 to 04 December. A filament erupted from the southern hemisphere between about 0730-1030 UT on 29 November, producing a CME which is expected to give a glancing blow to the Earth in the latter half of 02 December. On UT day 01 December, the solar wind speed varied between 450 km/s and 570 km/s, the total IMB (Bt) stayed stable between 5 nT and 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) varied in the range +7/-6 nT. This coronal hole effect, along with the effect of one more coronal hole and a possible glancing blow from a CME (expected late on 02 December) may keep the solar wind stream strengthened during the next 3 UT days, 02 to 04 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Active Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K Australian Region 12 33224223 Cocos Island 8 22113322 Darwin 9 32223222 Townsville 12 33224223 Learmonth 13 33224323 Alice Springs 12 33224223 Gingin 16 43224333 Canberra 12 33224223 Hobart 12 33324222 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec : Macquarie Island 30 34545533 Casey 23 55433323 Mawson 37 44334646 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 15 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 10 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 15 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 7 0010 0015 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 02 Dec 18 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible 03 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active 04 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 30 November and is current for 1-2 Dec. On UT day 01 December, geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet to active and in the Antarctic regions quiet to minor storm. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods on UT day 02 December, and unsettled to active on 03 and 04 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with minor to moderate degradations are expected on UT day 02 December. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be expected on UT days 03 and 04 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 01 Dec 23 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 35% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Nov 3 Dec 33 Jan 36 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 02 Dec 12 Depressed 30%%/near predicted monthly values 03 Dec 15 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values 04 Dec 15 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 01 December were near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions as well as mild enhancements. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed on UT days 02 to 04 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 30 Nov Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.1 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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