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FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Friday, May 20 2022 04:24 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 19 May 2022 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 May: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.1 18/2202UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M5.6 0719UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.5 1009UT possible lower European M1.2 1516UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 173/127 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 May 21 May 22 May Activity R1 R1 R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 170/124 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-May was at R2 level, with a M5.6 flare at 19/0719UT from AR3017 (N14E28, alpha). AR3017 exhibited a beta magnetic field at the time of the flare, but has since decayed in magnetic complexity. Two additional M-class flares were observed from AR3014 (N22E02, beta-gamma-delta), a M1.5 and M1.1 at 19/1009UT and 19/1516UT respectively. AR3014 continues to be the most complex region, and has increased in area and magnetic complexity. AR3014 has the greatest potential to produce further M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 level on 20-22 May, with a slight chance of R2 level. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 19-May was mildly enhanced, ranging from 434-567 km/s, due to waning coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed is currently near 515 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to slowly decrease to near background levels over 20-22 May. There is a very slight chance of a weak CME arrival on 21-May from a CME first observed on 17-May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: G0 Estimated Indices 19 May : A K Australian Region 6 22212122 Darwin 6 22212122 Learmonth 8 22322222 Alice Springs 6 22212122 Gingin 6 22212122 Canberra 5 12212121 Hobart 6 22312112 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May : Macquarie Island 5 12312012 Casey 10 34322121 Mawson 23 53333254 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 16 (Quiet) Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 12 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 3202 2213 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 May 8 G0 21 May 8 G0 22 May 5 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 19-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are likely for the Australian region during 20-22 May. There is a very slight chance of increased geomagnetic conditions on 21-May due to a possible weak CME arrival. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 May Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 22 May Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for 20-22 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 May 89 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 55% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 30% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 77 May 51 Jun 54 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 21 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 22 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 19 May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-May were near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1300-2100UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced during 20-22 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.6 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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