Daily Report

(last updated 24 Jan 2022 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 24 Jan: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 95/41 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41 COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 January with two C1 flares. There are two numbered regions on the visible disc. Spot region 2934 (S23E10) is stable and quiet. A yet to be numbered region is located near N13E79, there is a developing spot group near N32E06 and there has been intermittent spot development and decay in the northern hemisphere. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 25-27 January. There were no Earth directed coronal mass ejections seen in available images. Ambient solar wind conditions were observed on 24 January with a peak speed of 338 km/s. The peak total IMF was 7 nT until 1710 UT when a small step occurred, with the total IMF peaking at 11 nT after that. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-6 nT. Coronal hole effects are expected to produce mildly enhanced solar wind conditions 25-26 January. There is a slight chance of a mild CME impact in the second half of 25 January. The solar wind is expected to begin to settle on 27 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K Australian Region 3 11102121 Cocos Island 3 01211111 Darwin 3 11102121 Townsville 3 11102121 Learmonth 3 01102221 Alice Springs 2 00102110 Gingin 2 10101121 Canberra 2 11201011 Hobart 2 11201110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan : Macquarie Island 1 01100010 Casey 14 24522122 Mawson 11 22212125 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 7 2322 2111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 25 Jan 11 Quiet to Active 26 Jan 10 Quiet to Active 27 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet on UT day 24 January. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 25-27 January. Isolated active periods are possible on 25-26 January due to coronal hole effects and a possible mild coronal mass ejection impact. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 27 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Jan Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 25-27 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 24 Jan 60 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 34 Jan 36 Feb 39 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 25 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values 26 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values 27 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values on 24 January with enhancements at lower latitudes. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart 08-16 UT, Norfolk Is. 02-10 UT, and Canberra throughout the period. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 25-27 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 23 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A9.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 52600 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------