Daily Report

(last updated 21 Jan 2021 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 21 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 78/17 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 January. AR2798 (S17E32) appears to be decaying. AR2797 (S19E23) appears stable. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next three UT days, 22 to 24 January. The westward CME first observed in Stereo A images on 20 January is not expected to be geoeffective. On 21 January, the solar wind speed was below 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the Bz range was +/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal levels on 22 to 24 January. The solar wind speed may become mildly elevated late on 24 January due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K Australian Region 1 11110001 Cocos Island 1 11110000 Darwin 2 11110101 Townsville 2 11110111 Learmonth 2 11120101 Alice Springs 0 00010001 Gingin 1 11010001 Canberra 1 01010001 Hobart 2 12110001 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan : Macquarie Island 0 01000001 Casey 7 34220101 Mawson 7 22120214 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 3 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 0021 2211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled 23 Jan 7 Quiet 24 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 21 January. Quiet to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet. Conditions may become mildly disturbed late on 24 January due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 21 Jan Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 23 Jan Normal Normal Normal 24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 22 to 24 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 21 Jan 0 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: No data available. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 11 Jan 9 Feb 11 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 22 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values 23 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values 24 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly levels with moderate night time depressions at Darwin and Townsville. Sporadic E was observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 22 to 24 January. Sporadic E occurrences are likely. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 20 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A3.7 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------