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(last updated 04 Oct 2023 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2023 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 04 Oct: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 155/109 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 162/116 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Oct was at the R0 level. Solar activity was very quiet, with a C3.0 flare the largest of the day. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3452 (N12E07, beta-gamma) remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has exhibited spot development in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3450 (S18W24, beta) also exhibited intermediate spot development. AR3454 (S14E28, beta) displayed spot development, but is small and relatively noncomplex. One unnumbered region developed on the solar disk on 4-Oct and is visible at S16E15 with beta magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 5-7 Oct, with a chance of R1 flaring activity. Several CMEs were observed on 4-Oct, but none are considered geoeffective. A west directed CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 4/0036UT. An associated eruption is visible behind the western limb from 4/0029UT at around N30 in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A narrow, west directed, CME was observed from 4/0912UT with no clear associated on disk activity. Modelling indicates that this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 4-Oct increased, ranging from 326 to 477 km/s and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly steady over 5-6 Oct. An increase is expected on 7-Oct due to a long coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which is rotating towards a geoeffective position. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: G0 Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K Australian Region 6 22221212 Cocos Island 5 21221212 Darwin 5 12221212 Townsville 6 22221222 Learmonth 6 22222212 Alice Springs 5 22221211 Gingin 6 21221222 Canberra 5 12221122 Hobart 6 12322111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct : Macquarie Island 18 12643211 Casey 16 45322123 Mawson 21 53323235 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 9 1221 3332 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 05 Oct 8 G0 06 Oct 8 G0 07 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 4-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Casey and Mawson and an isolated period of G2 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 5-7 Oct, with a chance of G1 on 7-Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole approaching a geoeffective position. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 04 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 05 Oct Normal Normal Normal 06 Oct Normal Normal Normal 07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 4-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 5-7 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 04 Oct 136 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 35% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 40% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 104 Oct 98 Nov 96 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 05 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values 06 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values 07 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 4-Oct were 20-25% enhanced in the southern Australian region, with most enhancements occurring during local day. MUFs in the northern Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced, with most enhancements occurring during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced over 5-7 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 03 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B8.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 65600 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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