Daily Report

(last updated 30 May 2020 23:38 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 30 May: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 30 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Low levels of solar activity, with a chance of isolated M-class flares, are expected for the next three UT days, 31 May to 02 June. The visible disc is spotless. During UT day 30 May, the solar wind became moderately enhanced. The solar wind speed gradually increased, reaching a maximum 431 km/s at 30/1703 UT and currently around 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) increased to a maximum of 14 nT at 30/0532 UT and is currently around 6 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) reached a minimum of -12.9 nT at 30/0525 UT and had an extended southward period between 30/0410 UT and 30/0930 UT. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be moderately enhanced on UT days 31 May and 01 June due to minor coronal hole effects, returning to background conditions by 02 June. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 30 May : A K Australian Region 9 22332222 Cocos Island 7 12222132 Darwin 10 22333222 Townsville 12 23333223 Learmonth 12 22333233 Alice Springs 8 12332222 Gingin 9 22222233 Canberra 8 22232222 Hobart 9 13332222 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May : Macquarie Island 11 11353111 Casey 10 23232133 Mawson 48 33443277 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 3 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 11 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 3 1000 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Jun 6 Quiet to Unsettled 02 Jun 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 30 May. The Antarctic region observed mainly Quiet to Active conditions with some isolated storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 31 May to 01 June due to minor coronal hole effects, returning to Quiet levels on UT day 02 June. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Jun Normal Normal Normal 02 Jun Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to Moderate enhancements on UT day 30 May. MUFs are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 31 May to 02 June. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 30 May 6 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 65% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 80% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 1 May -13 Jun -13 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 31 May 0 Near predicted monthly values 01 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values 02 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 30 May and is current for 30 May to 1 Jun. MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to Moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 30 May. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 31 May to 02 June. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 29 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A2.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------