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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Sunday, Aug 14 2022 00:37 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 13 Aug 2022 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 13 Aug: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 124/77 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 121/731A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 13 Aug: Low COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Aug was at the R0 level, with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3079 (S10W27, beta) and AR3081 (N12E42, beta) have shown spot development over the 24 hour period. AR3079 was also responsible for the largest C-class flares. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 14-16 Aug, with a chance of R1. A southward CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 13/1848UT. An eruption is visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 13/1527UT around S30E27, associated with AR3078 (S26E22, beta). Modelling indicates this CME has a geoeffective component which will impact Earth with a glancing blow on 17-Aug. No other geoeffective CMEs have been observed in available imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Aug declined as the effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream waned, ranging from 489 to 568 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 14-15 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate. The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 16-Aug due to the effects of a high speed wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole which is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: G0 Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K Australian Region 6 12122321 Darwin 5 12122221 Learmonth 7 12222322 Alice Springs 5 12122221 Gingin 6 11221322 Canberra 4 11121221 Hobart 5 11121321 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug : Macquarie Island 10 00134430 Casey 12 24333222 Mawson 33 44445336 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 9 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 3123 2222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 14 Aug 5 G0 15 Aug 5 G0 16 Aug 8 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 Aug, with a chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions on 16-Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 13 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Aug Normal Normal Normal 15 Aug Normal Normal Normal 16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 14-16 Aug. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 13 Aug 54 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 65 Aug 67 Sep 68 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 14 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values 15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values 16 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 13 August and is current for 13-14 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values, with mildly depressed conditions in the Northern Australian region during local night. Spread-F was observed in the Australian region during local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Aug. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 12 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B3.2 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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