Daily Report

(last updated 08 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 08 Oct: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M6.7 1548UT probable lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 119/71 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78 COMMENT: Solar flare activity reached the R2 level on UT day 08-Oct due to an M6.7 flare from Active Region (AR) 4549 (N11W26, beta-gamma-delta) peaking at 08/1548UT. This region is the largest and most magnetically complex of five sunspot regions currently on the visible solar disk. The region has maintained its size, but has grown in complexity over the past UT day, with multiple delta spots present. A new unnumbered region appeared on the disk at N22W08, exhibiting a beta magnetic classification. A second new unnumbered region has begun to rotate onto the disk at S10E89, with a magnetic classification to be determined as the region comes further into view. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R1-R2 level over 09-11 Oct due to the flare activity and magnetic complexity of AR 4549. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout 08-Oct, with S0 conditions forecast over 09-11 Oct. A medium-velocity north-west directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed following the M6.7 flare and associated filament eruption in SOHO/LASCO from 08/1624UT. Modelling of this event indicates a partial impact at Earth on 11-Oct at 1800UT +/- 10 hours. The solar wind was at ambient levels throughout 08-Oct, with the solar wind speed broadly ranging between 350-380 km/s throughout the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 6 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -5 and +3 nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is forecast to rise on 09-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 06-Oct. The solar wind speed is forecast to remain elevated over 10-11 Oct due to the effects of the 06-Oct CME, the 08-Oct CME, as well as high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0 Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K Australian Region 4 11122111 Cocos Island 3 11121101 Darwin 5 21122112 Townsville 3 11121111 Learmonth 4 21121111 Alice Springs 3 11121111 Gingin 4 20122211 Canberra 3 00122111 Kennaook Cape Grim 5 111231-- Hobart 4 01123111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct : Casey 12 34421122 Mawson 23 23242364 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 6 1111 1321 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 09 Oct 35 G1-G2 10 Oct 18 G0-G1 11 Oct 30 G1-G2 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 7 October and is current for 9-11 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were at the G0 level over 08-Oct, with G0 conditions also reported at the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were recorded in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 interval observed at Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 09-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 06-Oct. G0-G1 conditions are forecast on 10-Oct due to the ongoing effects of the CME impact, combined with a high speed wind stream from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. G1-G2 conditions are forecast for 11-Oct due to the impact of a CME first observed on 08-Oct. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 08 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 09 Oct Fair Fair Fair 10 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair 11 Oct Fair Fair Fair COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Oct were normal to fair, with some degradations seen at high latitudes throughout the UT day. Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to be fair over 09-11 Oct, with geomagnetic activity forecast to cause degraded conditions across the forecast window, particularly in high latitude regions. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 08 Oct 57 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 61 Oct 60 Nov 58 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 09 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed 10 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed 11 Oct 40 Near predicted values to 15% depressed COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 7 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted values over 08-Oct, with some overnight enhancements observed in the Northern Australian region during local night hours. Scintillation was observed in both Darwin and Weipa over the period 08/1209-1259UT, with the eightieth percentile S4 reaching 0.798. Spread F was also observed in the southern Australian region during local night hours. MUFs are forecast to become depressed up to 15% over 09-11 Oct due to upcoming geomagnetic activity across the entire forecast period. Spread F may be present in southern Australian regions during local night hours, and shortwave fadeouts are probable. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 07 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B6.7 Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------