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FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jun 24 2024 03:43 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 23 Jun 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 23 Jun: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.4 0630UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.2 1137UT possible lower European M9.3 1301UT probable lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 196/148 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jun was R2, with the biggest flare being M9 from AR3723 (S20E68, beta-gamma-delta). AR3723 is returning region 3664 and 3697 returning for its third rotation around the solar disk, which is considered an unusually long lifespan for a sunspot. As the region is near the limb it is difficult to analyse, however from what can be seen it still maintains a strong magnetic complexity but has reduced in size. There are currently nine sunspots on the solar disk. AR3719 (S15E17, gamma) and AR3720 (S06E26, beta) have had some minor growth in their trailing regions, but otherwise no other significant change from any other sunspots has been noted. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2-R3 over 24-Jun. Several CMEs were observed on UT day 23-Jun, but none were considered geoeffective. There was no CME associated with the M9 flare from AR3723. The large filament dominating the southwest quadrant is still mostly stable. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 23-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Jun. The solar wind environment was generally near background levels on 23-Jun. A mild disturbance was noted from 23/0553 that was associated with a period of southward Bz, possibly due to a co-rotating interaction region. The solar wind speed was steady near 250 km/s for the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near background levels over 24-26 Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: G0 Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K Australian Region 6 02331111 Cocos Island 4 -22210-- Darwin 5 12231111 Townsville 7 12332111 Learmonth 7 12332111 Alice Springs 6 02331111 Gingin 6 02331120 Canberra 4 01231110 Kennaook Cape Grim 5 01331110 Hobart 5 01331110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun : Macquarie Island 4 00141000 Casey 5 02222221 Mawson 11 12233134 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 12 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 4 2100 1211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 24 Jun 6 G0 25 Jun 6 G0 26 Jun 6 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 24-26 Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Jun were generally normal, with some mild degradations during local night hours at most latitudes. HF radio communication conditions over 24-26 Jun are expected to be mostly normal, with degradations during local night hours persisting. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 23 Jun 112 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 30% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 121 Jun 116 Jul 117 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 24 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 25 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 26 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: .Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jun, with some depressions in the north and enhancements in the south during local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane, Hobart and Norfolk Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 24-26 Jun, with nighttime depressions possibly persisting. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 22 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C2.7 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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