Daily Report

(last updated 09 May 2026 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 09 May: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 122/75 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 10 May 11 May 12 May Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 122/75 120/72 118/70 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 09-May was at the R0 level, with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Active Region (AR) 4432 (N12W37, beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region has exhibited spot development over the UT day. Newly numbered AR 4436 (N18E70, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 10-12 May, with a chance of R2 primarily due to the development and complexity of region 4432. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 09-May. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 10-12 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-May decreased, ranging from 550 to 460 km/s and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -3 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 10-12 May due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: G0 Estimated Indices 09 May : A K Australian Region 3 21110111 Cocos Island 2 11110110 Darwin 3 21110112 Townsville 3 21110112 Learmonth 2 21110110 Alice Springs 2 21010111 Gingin 2 20110111 Canberra 2 11020110 Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11020110 Hobart 2 11020110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May : Macquarie Island 3 10031100 Casey 6 33211111 Mawson 11 33222214 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 7 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 12 3223 3323 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 10 May 6 G0 11 May 6 G0 12 May 6 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the planetary, Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-May. G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions are expected over 10-12 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 09 May Normal Normal-fair Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 10 May Normal Normal Normal 11 May Normal Normal Normal 12 May Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on UT day 09-May, with some fair conditions observed in the southern hemisphere later in the UT day. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be normal over 10-12 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 09 May 69 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 74 May 71 Jun 68 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 10 May 60 Near predicted monthly values 11 May 60 Near predicted monthly values 12 May 60 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values on UT day 09-May. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 08 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B6.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 3 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------