Daily Report

(last updated 14 Jul 2025 23:32 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 14 Jul: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 128/81 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 125/78 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jul was R0, with no solar flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4139 (N22W18, beta) and AR4142 (N01E51, beta) have shown some minor growth over the past day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Jul. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 14-Jul was mildly disturbed due to recent coronal hole activity, but is on a general decline. The solar wind speed ranged from 636 to 454 km/s and is on a slow decline. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue its current trend today, however is expected to become enhanced again by the end of the UT day 15-Jul due to another coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: G0 Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K Australian Region 9 22313232 Cocos Island 6 12202231 Darwin 9 22313232 Townsville 9 22313232 Learmonth 10 22313332 Alice Springs 9 22303232 Gingin 9 22303232 Canberra 9 22303232 Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22313233 Hobart 12 22313243 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul : Macquarie Island 11 22313333 Casey 14 33312343 Mawson 28 34423464 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : Darwin 2 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 4 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 49 (Unsettled) Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled) Hobart 18 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A Fredericksburg 14 Planetary 18 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 15 Planetary 0 4543 4333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 15 Jul 11 G0-G1 16 Jul 14 G0-G1 17 Jul 12 G0, chance G1 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 14 July and is current for 15-17 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jul. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. A period of G1 was observed on the planetary geomagnetic G scale. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16 Jul. Conditions may begin to settle by 17-Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Jul Fair Normal-fair Fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair 16 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair 17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair COMMENT: Global HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Jul were mildly degraded. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over 15-17 Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects. Low latitudes may be impacted more than middle latitudes. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 14 Jul 73 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 79 Jul 104 Aug 102 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 15 Jul 80 Near predicted values to 30% depressed 16 Jul 75 Near predicted values to 30% depressed 17 Jul 70 Near predicted values to 30% depressed COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul were near predicted values to 30% depressed. Conditions at Brisbane and Hobart were degraded during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 30% depressed over 15-17 Jul due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 13 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B7.6 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------