Daily Report

(last updated 20 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 20 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 178/131 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-Jan was at the R0 level, with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4342 (N18W00, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR4345 (S16E03, beta) has shown spot growth over the 24-hour period. The other notable region, AR4341 (S11W04, beta), has shown mild decay in its leader spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 21-23 Jan. S2 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 20-Jan. S1 solar proton conditions are expected on 21-Jan, declining to S0, with a chance of S1 over 21-22 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jan decreased, ranging from 785 to 1050 km/s and is currently near 825 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 62 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -26 to +60 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions began at 20/0530UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 21-23 Jan due to waning CME effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: G4 Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K Australian Region 115 74687766 Cocos Island 59 63566655 Darwin 109 84686656 Townsville 112 74696655 Learmonth 148 84687867 Alice Springs 92 74686655 Gingin 135 74688767 Canberra 85 64686655 Kennaook Cape Grim 120 64688766 Hobart 154 7479--76 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan : Macquarie Island 151 54797786 Casey 93 87675454 Mawson 103 68776555 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : Darwin 94 (Minor storm) Townsville 91 (Minor storm) Learmonth 116 (Major storm) Alice Springs 96 (Minor storm) Gingin 194 (Severe storm) Canberra NA Hobart NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A Fredericksburg 68 Planetary 125 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 64 Planetary 73 3211 1389 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 21 Jan 45 G2-G3 22 Jan 22 G1, chance of G2 23 Jan 15 G0, chance of G1 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 19 January and is current for 19-21 Jan. G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the planetary and Australian regions on UT day 20-Jan. Mostly G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G5 observed at Macquarie Island. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 21-Jan due to ongoing CME effects. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 22-Jan, with a chance of G2. Conditions are then expected to further decline to G0 on 23-Jan, with a chance of G1. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Jan Poor Poor Poor(PCA) PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 18 01 2026 2240UT and is in progress 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 21 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor 22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 23 Jan Normal Normal Fair-poor COMMENT: Global Ionospheric conditions were poor on UT day 20-Jan, with widespread MUF depressions due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Global ionospheric conditions are forecast to be fair to poor on 21-Jan and normal to fair over 22-23 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 20 Jan -16 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 40% during local day. Depressed by 55% during local night. Depressed by 50% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 60% during local day. Depressed by 55% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 40% during local day. Depressed by 55% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 110 Jan 89 Feb 88 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 21 Jan 20 25 to 50% below predicted monthly values 22 Jan 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values 23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 19 January and is current for 19-21 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 20 January and is current for 20-21 Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were depressed by 30-60% on UT day 20-Jan, with the strongest depressions observed in northern Australia. Strong spread-F was observed in the Southern Australian region. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be depressed by 25-50% on 21-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 22-Jan, before recovering to near predicted monthly values on 23-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 19 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+09 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+08 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 65000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------