Daily Report

(last updated 27 Feb 2020 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 27 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 27 February. There are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Two active regions may rotate onto the disc in the next day. A small ejection was observed on the west limb at 0912 UT in LASCO C2 images. The ejection was not observed in STEREO A images and so is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 to 380 km/s, total IMF peaked at 4 nT, while the IMF north-south component ranged between +3/-3 nT. The IMF direction was variable while temperature and density showed no disturbances. Very Low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three days, 28 February to 1 March. The wind speed and IMF may become mildly elevated late on 28 February due to the effects of a small coronal hole. The effects of another coronal hole may be evident late on 1 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K Australian Region 2 10110111 Cocos Island 1 11100110 Darwin 3 20111112 Townsville 3 20111111 Learmonth 2 20101110 Alice Springs 1 10100101 Gingin 1 10110110 Canberra 1 10110001 Hobart 1 10110101 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb : Macquarie Island 1 10020000 Casey 8 33321111 Mawson 17 52222244 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 2 0000 1022 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 28 Feb 7 Quiet 29 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed in the Australian region on UT day, 27 February. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions at high southern hemisphere latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet on 28 February. There may be a weak increase in activity late on 28th or early 29th and another increase in activity late on 1 March, both due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 28 Feb Normal Normal Normal 29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 27 February were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. Depressions mostly observed at low and high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected 28 February to 1 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 27 Feb -6 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 40% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan -20 Feb -16 Mar -16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 28 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values 29 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values 01 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 27 February were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at Niue 08-13 UT and Canberra 17-19 UT. Night spread F at Hobart and some pre-dawn spread F at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Sydney. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 28 February-1 March. Night spread F possible over the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 26 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------