Daily Report

(last updated 03 Jul 2025 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 03 Jul: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 125/78 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul Activity R0 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 132/86 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Jul was R0, with no significant solar flares. There is currently no solar region of significance on the visible solar disk. Solar region AR4129 (N02E02, beta) has grown slightly and solar region AR4127 (S17W16, beta) exhibited redistribution of its intermediate spots with both growth and decay evident. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Most of the solar regions are very small. A very small 5 degree long solar filament located at S02E12 lifted off from 03/1218UT but no CME was discernible. Solar activity is expected to be R0 over 4-6 Jul. Solar prominence eruptions were observed on the eastern solar limb from 03/0508UT and western solar limb from 03/0349UT in SDO304 imagery. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. From 03/0720UT CMEs were observed directed east and west in association with the solar prominence eruptions. Due to the solar limb location of the eruptions theses CMEs are not expected to reach te Earth. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 3-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 4-6 Jul. The solar wind speed on UT day 3-Jul was slightly variable. The solar wind speed ranged from 408 to 340 km/s and is currently at 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -12 nT. The IMF Bt became mildly enhanced after 03/05500UT. The IMF Bz was mildly southward 02/2200UT-03/0340UT, 03/1152-1230UT and from 03/1725UT. The Earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind stream over 04-05 Jul, however the southern latitudinal location of the associated coronal hole may reduce the influence of this wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0 Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K Australian Region 12 23333322 Cocos Island 11 23333222 Darwin 13 23343322 Townsville 11 23------ Learmonth 15 23343333 Alice Springs 12 23333322 Gingin 13 23333332 Canberra 12 23333322 Kennaook Cape Grim 11 13333322 Hobart 11 13333322 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul : Macquarie Island 11 13204421 Casey 10 23332222 Mawson 25 43432246 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 4 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A Fredericksburg 14 Planetary 18 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 14 1222 2222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 04 Jul 16 G0, chance G1 05 Jul 15 G0, chance G1 06 Jul 14 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 3-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated G2 period observed at Mawson. G0, chance G1 conditions expected 04-05 Jul due to a coronal hole wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 03 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 04 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair 05 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair 06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 3-Jul were fair to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair at middle to high latitudes over 04-05 Jul, in association with weak geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 03 Jul 85 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 79 Jul 104 Aug 102 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 04 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 05 Jul 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 06 Jul 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 3-Jul were 25% depressed to near predicted values. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Brisbane, Hobart and Townsville. MUFs are generally expected to be 15-20% depressed to near predicted values over 4-6 Jul, with mildly degraded HF conditions during local night hours for the southern Australian region during 04-05 Jul in association with mild geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 02 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B7.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------