Daily Report

(last updated 14 Jan 2025 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 14 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 166/120 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jan was R0, with no significant solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspots on the solar disk, however five of them are at the limbs and not well visible. AR3959 (M19E50, beta) is currently the largest sunspot region and has developed a number of trailer spots in the last day. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Jan. Several CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Jan, although a majority of them were launched from the western limb, likely from nearAR3947 (N11W77, beta). Due to the location these CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective. A weak CME was observed from the eastern limb at 1624 UT but is also not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind environment on UT day 14-Jan was under the influence of an elongated coronal hole along the solar equator. The solar wind speed was on an incline and ranged between 420 and 520 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to become further enhanced over 15-17 Jan due to the coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: G0 Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K Australian Region 9 22222233 Cocos Island 7 22222222 Darwin 7 22222222 Townsville 11 32222333 Learmonth 11 32232332 Alice Springs 8 22222223 Gingin 10 32222233 Canberra 9 22222233 Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23322233 Hobart 12 23322333 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan : Macquarie Island 10 23223322 Casey 30 46543333 Mawson 27 34543354 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 4 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 12 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 8 3202 2221 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 15 Jan 10 G0 16 Jan 12 G0, slight chance G1 17 Jan 14 G0, chance G1 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jan. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Jan, although there is a chance for G1 by later in the period due to ongoing coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair 17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Jan were normal to fair, with mildly degraded conditions in the southern hemisphere for most of the day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal to fair over 15-17 Jan due toe coronal hole activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 14 Jan 110 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 132 Jan 119 Feb 116 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 15 Jan 130 Near predicted values to 15% depressed 16 Jan 125 Near predicted values to 15% depressed 17 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were mear predicted values to 15% depressed. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane during local daylight hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 15-17 Jan due to coronal hole activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 13 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.2 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------