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Daily Report

(last updated 29 Feb 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 FEBRUARY 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Feb: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 164/118 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 160/114 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Feb was at the R0 level, with no significant flaring activity. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3590 (N18W63, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar disk. This region has shown some recent growth in its intermediate spots and increased in magnetic complexity. AR3595 (N20W08, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot development over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3598 (S13W17, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Returning region AR3576, which previously produced R1-R3 level flares, is due to return on UT day 01-Mar at a latitude of S16. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 01-03 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 29/0924UT. This CME has no clear on-disk source and is considered a farside event. The CME previously observed at 28/1748UT associated with the M1.5 flare from AR3590 was modelled and is not considered significantly geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Feb decreased, ranging from 375 to 430 km/s and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline on 01-Mar, before increasing over 02-03 Mar due to the component arrival of a CME first observed on 28-Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: G0 Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K Australian Region 2 11112001 Cocos Island 1 01111000 Darwin 2 11112001 Townsville 3 21112011 Learmonth 3 21112001 Alice Springs 2 10112001 Gingin 2 11112100 Canberra 3 11112101 Hobart 2 11112100 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb : Macquarie Island 3 00103200 Casey 10 23432111 Mawson 6 22322110 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 15 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 4 1112 1111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 01 Mar 6 G0 02 Mar 20 G1 03 Mar 14 G0, chance of G1 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 29 February and is current for 2-3 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 01-Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 02-Mar due to the component arrival of a CME first observed on 28-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-Mar, with a chance of G1 as CME effects abate. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Mar Normal Normal Normal 02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair 03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Feb were mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 01-03 Mar, with normal to fair conditions for mid to high latitudes on 02-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Feb 109 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 20% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 144 Feb 108 Mar 108 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 01 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values 02 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values 03 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 29 February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed in southern Australian regions. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 01-03 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.1 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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