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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Sunday, Jul 21 2019 12:37 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 20 Jul 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 20 Jul: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 67/0 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0 COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 20 July. The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 20 July, the solar wind speed stayed between 315 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly in the range +3/-1 nT. The particle density varied between 0.2 ppcc and 3.5 ppcc during most parts of this day. Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days,21-23 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K Australian Region 0 01010000 Cocos Island 0 01000010 Darwin 2 10111011 Townsville 2 11111011 Learmonth 1 01011000 Alice Springs 0 01000000 Gingin 0 00000000 Canberra 0 00000000 Launceston 0 01010000 Hobart 0 01010000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul : Macquarie Island 0 00010000 Mawson 1 21000000 Davis 2 11221000 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 3 1101 1111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 21 Jul 5 Quiet 22 Jul 5 Quiet 23 Jul 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region on UT day 20 July. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 UT days (21 to 23 July) with a chance of unsettled conditions on UT day 23 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Jul Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 21 Jul Normal Normal Normal 22 Jul Normal Normal Normal 23 Jul Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements on UT day 20 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (21 to 23 July). ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 20 Jul -5 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun -4 Jul -12 Aug -14 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 21 Jul -4 Near predicted monthly values 22 Jul -4 Near predicted monthly values 23 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 20 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (21 to 23 July). ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 19 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A6.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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