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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Jun 27 2017 14:07 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 26 Jun 2017 23:51 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 Jun: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 74/11 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun Activity Very low Very low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 77/16 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed remained slightly elevated under the influence of a recent coronal hole, ranging between 480km/s to 609km/s over the UT day and is ~540km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of Bz component declined gradually over the UT day, ranging from +/-5nT at 00UT to be currently fluctuating between +/-2nT. The solar wind is expected to return to nominal values as coronal hole effects wane over the next two days. Solar wind parameters are expected to become mildly enhanced on 29Jun due to the influence of a small equatorially located positive polarity coronal hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight chance of C-class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K Australian Region 6 22132121 Cocos Island 3 11121120 Darwin 6 21132121 Townsville 6 22132121 Learmonth 7 22232122 Alice Springs 6 12132121 Norfolk Island 4 22022011 Culgoora 5 22122120 Gingin 8 12232132 Camden 5 22122121 Canberra 3 11122110 Launceston 7 22132221 Hobart 5 11132120 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun : Macquarie Island 6 11143010 Casey 12 33322142 Mawson 17 53342232 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled) Canberra 56 (Unsettled) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 12 2242 2232 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 Jun 6 Quiet 28 Jun 6 Quiet 29 Jun 12 Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet top Unsettled conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 27Jun-28Jun. Unsettled conditions expected on 29Jun due to the influence of a small equatorially located positive polarity coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 29 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric support at times for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 Jun 7 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 10 Jun 10 Jul 9 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values 28 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values 29 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions during the local night, depressions during local day for Northern AUS regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A4.6 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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