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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jan 27 2020 21:12 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 26 Jan 2020 23:35 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 75/13 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 26 January. There is currently one numbered region 2757(N03E05) visible on the solar disc. This region showed some growth and produced A flaring activity over the period. Another region has also rotated over the SE limb (no number yet). Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January. There is a chance of increased solar activity over the next coming days due to new development. A weak CME observed to west in STEREO coronagraph images around 26/0154 UT. Gaps in STEREO images and absence of SOHO LASCO coronagraph images between 25/2348 UT- 26/0524UT limited our ability to determine any earth directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at nominal levels, under 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 1-6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the range of +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near its background levels to slightly enhanced for 27-29 January due to weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K Australian Region 2 11001211 Cocos Island 2 11001200 Darwin 3 11101211 Townsville 2 11001211 Learmonth 3 11002211 Alice Springs 2 11001200 Gingin 2 20001211 Canberra 2 11001200 Hobart 2 11101110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan : Macquarie Island 0 10001000 Casey 7 32311211 Mawson 7 33212210 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 7 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 1 0200 0000 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 Jan 5 Quiet 28 Jan 10 Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods 29 Jan 7 Mostly Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 26 January was Quiet for the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three days, 27-29 January with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal 28 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal 29 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next 3 days, 27-29 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 Jan -24 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec -29 Jan -16 Feb -17 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values 28 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values 29 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region on 26 January. Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial region. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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