Daily Report

(last updated 12 May 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 12 May: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M3.2 0045UT possible lower West Pacific M2.4 0552UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.6 1241UT possible lower European M1.0 1347UT possible lower European M1.5 1356UT possible lower European X1.0 1626UT probable all South American/ Atlantic M4.8 2032UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.1 2206UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.0 2310UT possible lower West Pacific Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 222/172 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 13 May 14 May 15 May Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 200/152 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at the R3 level due an X1 flare from the large solar region AR3664(S19W67, beta-gamma-delta). This region also produced the M4.8, M3.2, M2.4 and two M1 flares and is now approaching the south west solar limb. An R1(M1.0) flare was from solar region AR3679(S09E78, beta) a very small region that has recently rotated onto the solar disk. Small solar regions AR3676(S12E19, beta-gamma) and AR3675(S15W37, beta) have shown rapid growth in the past 24 hours. Small solar region AR3671(N23W05, beta) has shown some growth. There are currently twelve numbered regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 13-14 May, with a decline in activity likely on 15-May to R1-R2. Solar flare activity is expected to become less frequent after the departure of AR3664. The GOES solar proton flux has declined and is now at S0. Solar radiation storm conditions are expected to be at S0, with the chance of S1 over 13-14 May. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours. In LASCO C2 imagery a southwest directed CME was observed from 12/0348UT which could not be correlated with today's flare activity and is currently considered a far side event. An extremely faint and narrow west directed CME is visible from 12/1136UT and is not considered significant. The solar wind environment on 12-May overall has declined from its recently extremely enhanced state. A weak shock was observed at 12/0856UT which very mildly enhanced the interplanetary magnetic field post shock arrival. This shock was weaker than expected. There is the possibility of a CME arrival over the next 24-48 hours, but confidence is now low on any significant CME arrival. The ACE EPAM low energy ion channel which can be used as a precursor for CME arrival is currently not showing a steady increasing trend. The solar ranged from 740 to 990 km/s and is currently near 820 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT, with Bz mildly southward during the interval 12/1941-2154UT. Two small coronal holes are visible in the northwest and southeast solar quadrant. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G2 Estimated Indices 12 May : A K Australian Region 26 56241234 Cocos Island 22 55341124 Darwin 24 56241223 Townsville 29 66241224 Learmonth 34 66352234 Alice Springs 29 56251234 Gingin 31 66341234 Canberra 25 56241224 Kennaook Cape Grim 26 56241234 Hobart 30 56341235 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May : Macquarie Island 53 67462435 Casey 45 66343536 Mawson 123 98553376 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : Darwin 55 (Unsettled) Townsville 93 (Minor storm) Learmonth 91 (Minor storm) Alice Springs 71 (Active) Gingin 167 (Severe storm) Canberra 184 (Severe storm) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A Fredericksburg 32 Planetary 63 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K Fredericksburg 0 Planetary 0 9999 9987 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 13 May 25 G1, chance G2 14 May 16 G0, chance G1 15 May 8 G0 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 12 May and is current for 12-13 May. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-May, with G2-G5 geomagnetic periods observed in the Antarctic region. Planetary conditions were at G3 early on the UT day 11/00-06UT, then conditions declined to G0. The anticipated geomagnetic activity for 12-May did not eventuate, with the geomagnetic activity early in the UT day more due to declining storm activity from the previous UT day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to G1, with a chance for isolated G2 periods for 13-May. There is a chance for a weak CME impact over 13-14 May, and mild activity induced by coronal hole wind streams. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 12 May Normal Fair Poor-fair PCA Event : No event in progress. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 13 May Normal Normal-fair Fair 14 May Normal Normal-fair Fair 15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-May were generally normal for low and middle latitudes. Low latitude ionospheric scintillation was observed at times on 11-May. High latitudes were impacted by absorption and geomagnetic storm effects but are now improving. Improved HF conditions are expected for 13-May. HF fadeouts are probable. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 12 May 143 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced by 120% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 35% over the UT day. Absorption observed at times. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 125 May 114 Jun 116 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 13 May 120 Near predicted monthly values 14 May 120 Near predicted monthly values 15 May 120 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-May were near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin, Weipa and Niue 11/1139-2040UT. A shortwave fadeout was observed in the Australian region 11/0101-0405UT. MUFs are now expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 13-15 May. Shortwave fadeouts are expected. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 11 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+06 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C5.7 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May Speed: 739 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: -16 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------