Daily Report

(last updated 22 Oct 2018 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Oct: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 October. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disc visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 22/0518 UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 22 October at around 370 km/s, then gradually increased to 400 km/s by around 0600 UT and then showed a gradual decrease to 330 km/s by 2200 UT. During this period, IMB Bt varied mostly between 2 and 7 nT, Bz fluctuated mostly between +/-4 nT and the particle density varied between 3 and 12 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal values through most parts of the UT day 23 October. Mild to moderate strengthening in solar wind stream may start from the late hours on UT day 23 October or early hours on 24 October due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole from the southern hemisphere of the Sun. For the next 3 UT days, 23-25 October, solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K Australian Region 4 22202111 Cocos Island 2 12101100 Darwin 3 22101111 Townsville 4 22202111 Learmonth 5 22202112 Alice Springs 4 12202111 Culgoora 4 12202111 Gingin 5 22202112 Canberra 4 12212111 Launceston 6 22213111 Hobart 4 12212111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct : Macquarie Island 4 12123000 Casey 14 35412221 Mawson 19 53312253 Davis 18 33412154 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 0003 3211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Oct 6 Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible during late hours of the day. 24 Oct 12 Mostly Unsettled to Active 25 Oct 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods possible COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT day 22 October across the Australian region. Some Unsettled and Active periods were recorded in the Antarctic region on this day. On UT day 23 October, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly at Quiet levels, with a chance of some Unsettled periods during the late hours of the day as the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole may start late on 23 October. Due to the effect of this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 24 October, returning to mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the possibility of some Active periods on UT day 25 October. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Oct Normal Normal Normal 24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 22 October with periods of minor to mild depressions in some mid latitude areas. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on UT day 23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days 24 and 25 October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Oct -14 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 0 Oct -5 Nov -5 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values 24 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 25 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 22 October with some periods of minor to mild depressions in the Northern regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on UT day 23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days 24 and 25 October in the Aus/NZ regions due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 15.1 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------