Daily Report

(last updated 06 Aug 2020 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 06 Aug: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 73/9 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 August. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 August. No Earthward-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. During UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed range was 400 km/s to 530 km/s, in response to coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mainly between +3/-3 nT. The outlook for today (UT day 07 August) is for the solar wind to continue on its gradual decline towards the nominal level. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected on UT day 08 August. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K Australian Region 1 01101101 Cocos Island 1 01101101 Darwin 2 11111101 Townsville 3 11111102 Learmonth 2 01101202 Alice Springs 1 00001101 Gingin 3 01102212 Canberra 1 01001101 Hobart 2 01111101 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug : Macquarie Island 0 00001100 Casey 9 23312312 Mawson 11 13112225 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 2200 1221 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 07 Aug 5 Quiet 08 Aug 5 Quiet 09 Aug 5 Quiet COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, with one isolated minor storm period. Mostly quiet conditions with possible isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next three UT days (07-09 August) ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 07 Aug Normal Normal Normal 08 Aug Normal Normal Normal 09 Aug Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 06 Aug 9 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 50% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: No data available. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Enhanced by 35% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 30% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul -1 Aug -13 Sep -14 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 07 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 08 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 09 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 06 August. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values for the next three UT days, 07-09 August. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 05 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A4.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 319000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------