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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Jan 18 2017 18:26 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 17 Jan 2017 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 17 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 79/19 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17 COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days 18-20 Jan, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed varied between 295-325 km/s over the last 24 hours, currently around 300 km/s. The IMF total strength varied between 2-6 nT, currently 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 to 2 nT, currently around 1 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase late 18-Jan due to the effects of a mid-latitude coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K Australian Region 4 11111301 Cocos Island 3 01101301 Darwin 4 21101302 Townsville 5 21101312 Alice Springs 3 11101301 Norfolk Island 1 10101101 Gingin 4 11111311 Camden 3 11211201 Canberra 1 01100200 Launceston 6 22221311 Hobart 3 11111300 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan : Macquarie Island 2 00021200 Casey 12 34421311 Mawson 8 43112211 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth NA Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 1 0000 0000 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 18 Jan 18 Quiet to Minor Storm 19 Jan 20 Active to Minor Storm 20 Jan 18 Quiet to Active COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet with an unsettled period across the Australian region on 17-Jan. The unsettled period was due to a period of southward Bz between 17/1220 to 17/1520. Conditions are expected to remain quiet until late on 18-Jan when coronal hole effects are likely to bring active conditions with periods of minor storms. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 18 and 19 January in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair 19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair 20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 17 Jan 1 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 2 Jan 21 Feb 20 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 18 Jan 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values 19 Jan -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 20 Jan -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 17 January and is current for 17-19 Jan. On 17-Jan, MUFs were moderately depressed in Niue Island and the Northern Australian Region during the local night, and were near predicted monthly values in other Australian regions. Widespread sporadic-E was observed. Similar conditions are likely for the next day, 18-Jan. Depressions are expected across the whole Australian Region on 19-Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity which is forecast to start late 18-Jan. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 16 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A6.9 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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