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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Aug 20 2018 15:12 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 19 Aug 2018 23:39 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Aug: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 67/0 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 Aug. For the next three UT days, 20-22 Aug, the solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. H-alpha imagery observed a filament eruption starting ~0534UT near region 2718(S06W12) with an associated narrow CME observed in STEREO imagery around 0754UT, however significant data gaps make definitive analysis difficult. The solar wind speed steadily decreased to 400 Km/s and began to increase from 1600UT onwards to be 500 Km/s at the time of this report. Bz was mostly neutral until 1600UT after which it decreased in magnitude varied between +/-5 nT while Bt increased from 5 nT to 12 nT during this period. These enhanced solar wind speeds are in response to the arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. The solar wind stream is expected to strengthen further over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K Australian Region 4 11121221 Darwin 4 11111222 Townsville 5 11121222 Learmonth 4 11111221 Alice Springs 3 01111221 Culgoora 4 11121221 Gingin 3 11110221 Canberra 4 11121221 Launceston 5 11221222 Hobart 4 11121221 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug : Macquarie Island 4 00231211 Casey 14 33221351 Mawson 14 33421324 Davis 13 23432332 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 2 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 8 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 15 2453 2322 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Aug 20 Quiet to Active 21 Aug 15 Quiet to Active 22 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 19 Aug. The Antarctic region experienced Unsettled to Active conditions during the last 24 hours. Expect magnetic conditions to increase to Active levels, during the next few hours in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce isolated Minor Storm levels during the next 24 hours. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Aug Normal Normal Normal 21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Aug -4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 6 Aug -3 Sep -4 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values 21 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values 22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the Aus/NZ regions on UT day 19 Aug. The three days outlook, 20-22 Aug is for MUFs to be mostly near monthly predicted levels. MUFs are expected to be strongest today, 20 Aug due the onset of expected geomagnetic disturbance. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A1.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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