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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Jan 17 2018 20:02 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 16 Jan 2018 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 16 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 16 January). There is one sunspot region (2696, S15E14 at 2225UT/16 January) on the solar disk visible from the earth. This is a stable region with beta magnetic configuration. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 480 to 380 km/s today. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-3 nT today, whereas the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 1 and 6 nT during this time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days (17 to 19 January). ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K Australian Region 4 21221011 Cocos Island 1 11010010 Darwin 2 21111001 Townsville 4 21221011 Learmonth 3 21121011 Alice Springs 3 21221001 Culgoora 4 21221011 Gingin 4 21121111 Camden 4 21221011 Canberra 3 11221001 Launceston 4 21221111 Hobart 4 11221111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan : Macquarie Island 3 10131000 Casey 16 34432124 Mawson 19 42222255 Davis 12 23232243 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 7 3231 1211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 17 Jan 5 Quiet 18 Jan 5 Quiet 19 Jan 5 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the Australian region today (UT day 16 January). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in this region for the next three days (17 to 19 January). ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 16 Jan Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Jan Normal Normal Normal 18 Jan Normal Normal Normal 19 Jan Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels with some periods of small MUF enhancements as well as periods of small MUF depressions in some low latitude regions. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (17 to 19 January) with some possibility of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels during this period, which may result in the weakening of ionising radiation. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 16 Jan 5 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec -10 Jan 4 Feb 4 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 17 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values 18 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values 19 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels in Australian region with some periods of small MUF enhancements as well as period of small MUF depressions in the Northern parts of the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the region for the next three days (17 to 19 January) with some possibility of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels during this period, which may result in the weakening of ionising radiation. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 15 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A3.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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