Daily Report

(last updated 22 Jan 2019 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 22 January. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region 2733, located at N05E23 at 22/2230UT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 23-25 January. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 22 January, the solar wind speed mostly remained near its nominal levels, ranging between 300 km/s and 350 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between between -4 to 4 nT for most of the UT day. The solar wind is expected to be remain near nominal conditions for early part of today (UT day 23 January). Then from late UT day 23 January, the solar wind is expected to enhance due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams (HSS) associated with a recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. This coronal hole during the previous solar rotation caused daily average winds of up to ~500 km/s. Similar to slightly weaker effects are expected in this rotation. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K Australian Region 3 11101112 Cocos Island 2 12100111 Darwin 4 22101112 Townsville 3 21101112 Learmonth 2 12100111 Alice Springs 3 21001112 Culgoora 3 11101112 Gingin 2 12000121 Canberra 2 11001112 Launceston 3 11101112 Hobart 2 11101111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan : Macquarie Island 0 00000001 Casey 9 33321122 Mawson 15 12112155 Davis 5 22111131 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 3 0000 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active 24 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled 25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and is current for 23 Jan only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 22 January. Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels today (UT day 23 January) in response to the effects of the CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated minor storms are also possible on today. UT days 24 and 25 January is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled as the coronal hole effects wane. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, there were MUF depressions over the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for today, UT day 23 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Jan -20 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 45% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 35% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec -32 Jan -12 Feb -13 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values 24 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values 25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, MUFs were moderately depressed to mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region. Near predicted to moderately depressed MUFs are expected for today (UT day 23 January), as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Slightly stronger depressions are expected on UT day 24 January as an aftermath of the forecasted geomagnetic activity associated with the approaching coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------