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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Apr 08 2020 02:11 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 07 Apr 2020 23:33 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 07 Apr: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 07 Apr with a B4.5 flare from a plage (Ex region 2579). Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days, 08-10 Apr. GONG Halpha images showed an unstable filament in the NW quadrant, near the plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained near nominal levels, under 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, was mostly neutral until 07/1400 UT then turned south up to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels for the next three days, 08-10 Apr, although some slight enhancements may be observed due to weak isolated coronal holes. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K Australian Region 0 00000011 Darwin 0 00000011 Townsville 1 11100011 Learmonth 2 00001022 Alice Springs 0 00000011 Gingin 1 00000022 Canberra 0 00000001 Hobart 1 10101011 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 6 12311122 Mawson 25 11110175 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 9 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 3 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 3 1111 1101 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled 09 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled 10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the Australian region on UT day 07 Apr. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three days, 08-10 Apr and a times may reach Unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 07 Apr Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 08 Apr Normal Normal Normal 09 Apr Normal Normal Normal 10 Apr Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three days, 08-10 Apr. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 07 Apr -4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 40% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Mar 1 Apr -14 May -14 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 08 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values 09 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values 10 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced for the Australian region on 07 Apr. Mild MUFs enhancements observed at Cocos Island region local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next three days, 08-10 Apr. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 06 Apr Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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