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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Feb 09 2016 22:24 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 08 Feb 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 08 Feb: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 115/66 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb Activity Low Low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66 COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT day, 8 Feb, with only one weak C-class flare and a number of smaller B-class flares. The strongest C1.6 flare observed at 08/0529 UT from Region 2492(N14W12). There are currently six earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for low solar activity with chance of C-class flares. We observed two notable events on GONG H Alpha. One was several eruptive surges were observed from near Region 2492 (N15W14) at about 08/1617UT and the other was a long length (approximately 20 deg wide) disappearing solar filament from N20E20. At the time of writing, coronagraph imagery associated with these events were not available to determine if these events caused any Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The solar wind enhanced briefly between 08/0500 UT and 08/1500 UT, following the enhancements in solar wind densities. This is indicative of the arrival of co-rotating interactive region (CIR) associated with the equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/- 10 nT and Bt was between 5-12 nT. The 2-day outlook (9-10 Feb) is for the solar winds to remain at these moderate levels as the Coronal hole effects wane. In addition, there is chance of weak enhancement in solar winds latter today and this is forecasted due to the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K Australian Region 7 33321011 Cocos Island 4 22311000 Darwin 7 23321012 Townsville 8 33321012 Learmonth 8 33322011 Norfolk Island 5 23310011 Culgoora 7 33311011 Canberra 6 23311011 Launceston 11 34322122 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb : Macquarie Island 11 43422210 Casey 20 45532222 Mawson 28 55623223 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : Darwin NA Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne 4 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A Fredericksburg 16 Planetary 18 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 7 1001 2422 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled 10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled 11 Feb 6 Quiet COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels during the last 24 hours (8 Feb). This was due to moderate elevations in solar wind speeds associated with the coronal hole and Bz remaining strongly southwards for at least 4 hours consecutively (08/0000 UT - 08/0400 UT). The Australian Dst dipped to a minimum of -51 nT at 08/0700 UT associated with this event. The 2-day outlook (8-9 Feb) is for mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions and at times possibly reaching minor storm levels. The conditions are forecasted due to solar winds been slightly strong, about 350 km/s, associated with the coronal hole effects, with a chance of an additional enhancement due to the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 08 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 11 Feb Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 8 Feb were slightly above the predicted monthly values. The outlook (9 Feb) is for MUFs to depress slightly, but remain near the monthly predicted values. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 08 Feb 64 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 45% during local day. Enhanced by 70% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 60 Feb 50 Mar 51 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 09 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values 10 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values 11 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 8 Feb were slightly above the predicted monthly values. The outlook (9 Feb) is for MUFs to depress slightly, but remain near the monthly predicted values. This is forecasted due to the minor storm condition observed over the past 24 hrs. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 07 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B3.8 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: -4 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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