Daily Report

(last updated 23 Oct 2017 23:44 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 23 Oct: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 78/17 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 77/16 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685 (S09E46) and region 2686 (N13E70) and no earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 349km/s and 413km/s over the UT day and is currently 355km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged between +4/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase to elevated levels between 24Oct-26Oct due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole that extends from the equator up to the north pole of the sun. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight chance of M-class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K Australian Region 4 22122101 Cocos Island 3 21110111 Darwin 5 31121211 Townsville 6 32122201 Learmonth 8 32132212 Alice Springs 4 21122201 Norfolk Island 5 22222102 Culgoora 4 22122101 Gingin 5 21122202 Camden 4 22122101 Canberra 3 21122100 Launceston 7 22233111 Hobart 6 22133101 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct : Macquarie Island 4 11033000 Casey 12 34431211 Mawson 13 32231215 Davis 9 32241112 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : Darwin 2 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 4 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 3100 1012 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 24 Oct 25 Active 25 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm 26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 October and is current for 24-25 Oct. The geomagnetic field for the Australian region was at Quiet levels for 23Oct. Quiet to Active conditions are expected for 24Oct with isolated periods of Minor Storm levels due to the expected onset of coronal hole effects. Active to Minor Storm levels expected for 25 October and Unsettled to Active conditions for 26Oct. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Oct Normal Normal Fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor 25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor 26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs for 24Oct. Expect some degradation in HF Communication (Fair conditions) for 25Oct-26Oct at mid to high latitudes with notable depressed MUFs due to the onset of a geomagnetic storm on 24 October. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 23 Oct 4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 20 Oct 5 Nov 4 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 24 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values 25 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 30% 26 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 30% COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressions in the Australian region for 23Oct. Similar conditions are expected for 24 October. Expect some degradation in MUF's for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ region and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions on 25Oct-26Oct due to increased geomagnetic activity over this time. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 22 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A7.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------