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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, May 30 2016 10:41 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 29 May 2016 23:38 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 May: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 83/24 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 May 31 May 01 Jun Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 29 May UT. Active region 2548 produced several B-class flares. The largest flare, B7.2, peaked at 0656 UT. A smaller flare, B6.5, peaked at 0904 UT and was accompanied by a CME, which does not seem to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity due to a chance for C-class flares. The solar wind speed varied in the range 420-550 km/s. At the time of the report it is gradually increasing and fluctuating in the vicinity of 510 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 3-8 nT and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -5 nT and +5 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar wind speed to reach values up to 550-580 km/s due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 29 May : A K Australian Region 5 12220122 Cocos Island 4 11220022 Darwin 3 11111111 Townsville 6 22221122 Learmonth 7 22221123 Alice Springs 4 12210112 Norfolk Island 2 12110011 Gingin 5 22110123 Camden 6 22221122 Canberra 3 12110112 Melbourne 6 12220123 Launceston 6 12221213 Hobart 4 12220112 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May : Macquarie Island 6 22330012 Casey 10 33222223 Mawson 24 34233246 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 7 (Quiet) Melbourne 9 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K Fredericksburg 13 Planetary 16 4352 2333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 May 14 Unsettled to Active 31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled 01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 27 May and is current for 28-30 May. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during 29 May UT and reached Unsettled levels in the Southern Australian region by the end of the day. In the Antarctica region geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled. Active and Major Storm levels were observed by Mawson. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected to be Unsettled to Active on 30 May UT with a chance of short Minor Storm periods due to coronal hole effects. During 31 May and 1 June UT geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled because the coronal hole effects are expected to wane. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected to be normal to mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during the next 3 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 May 38 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Niue Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 30 May 47 Jun 46 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 May 40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 31 May 40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 01 Jun 35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: On 29 May conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted monthly values in the Antarctic and Southern Australian regions. In the Northern Australian region the conditions were near predicted monthly values during local day and were mildly depressed during local night. During the next 3 days conditions in the Australian region are expected to remain near predicted monthly values with mildly depressions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.7 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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