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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Oct 20 2018 02:21 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 19 Oct 2018 23:32 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Oct: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 October. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 20-22 October, solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 19/1600 UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 19 October at around 320 km/s and is currently around 305 km/s. The IMF Bt mainly varied between 1-3 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz mainly varied in the range +/-2 nT. On UT day 20 October the solar wind is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of high speed streams from the southern extension of the north polar coronal hole, then start to return to nominal values on 21 October as the influence of the coronal hole wanes. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K Australian Region 1 11000001 Cocos Island 0 01000000 Darwin 1 11000011 Townsville 1 10000011 Learmonth 1 11000011 Alice Springs 1 11000001 Culgoora 0 01000000 Gingin 1 10000011 Canberra 0 00000000 Launceston 0 01000000 Hobart 0 00000000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 5 32210111 Mawson 11 22101054 Davis 8 23202041 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 9 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 0 Planetary 0 0000 0001 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Oct 16 Quiet to Active 21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled 22 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 19 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated Active to Minor Storm period. On UT day 20 October, the geomagnetic activity is expected to increase from Quiet levels to Unsettled to Active levels due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 21-22 October. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 22 Oct Normal Normal Normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Oct -16 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 0 Oct -5 Nov -5 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% 21 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% 22 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 19 October. The Niue Island region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local day and local night. The Northern Australian region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local night. Some sporadic E was observed. The three day outlook (UT days 20-22 October) is for MUFs to be at near monthly predicted levels, with the possibility of periods with Minor depressions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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