Daily Report

(last updated 30 Oct 2020 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 30 Oct: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 80/20 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 October. There are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778(S18W67) and AR2779(S15W58). No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. On UT day 30 October, the solar wind was slightly enhanced, between 400-450Km/s due to the influence of a north polar coronal hole extension. The total IMF (Bt) was weak, under 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K Australian Region 1 11000011 Cocos Island 0 00000001 Darwin 1 11000011 Townsville 2 11100112 Learmonth 2 10010112 Alice Springs 1 11000001 Gingin 0 00000011 Canberra 1 01010011 Hobart 2 11110011 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct : Macquarie Island 2 01120010 Casey 8 23321113 Mawson 18 42221155 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 7 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 12 1234 2422 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 31 Oct 8 Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods. 01 Nov 5 Quiet 02 Nov 5 Quiet COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during for the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November with possible isolated unsettled periods today, 31 October. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 31 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 02 Nov Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected during the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 30 Oct -38 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Niue Island Region: No data available. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 25% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep -2 Oct -13 Nov -14 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 31 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 01 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 02 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 20% COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly to mildly depressed levels during UT days 31 October to 02 November. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 29 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.6 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 235000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------