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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Sunday, Dec 11 2016 11:47 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 10 Dec 2016 23:48 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:YELLOW ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 10 Dec: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 72/8 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 73/9 COMMENT: Solar activity on Dec 10 was Low due to a C4 flare at 10/1715UT from active region 2615 which has rotated around the west limb. Expect Very Low activity for the next three days. No visible sunspots observed in white light at 10/1430UT from San Vito Solar Observatory. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 10 Dec, in available LASCO imagery up to 10/1736UT. Solar wind speed has decreased from ~700 km/s to ~625 Km/s and is expected to continue gradually decrease to nominal levels over the next two days as the southern hemisphere trans-equatorial negative polarity coronal hole rotates west toward the limb. The IMF Bz component fluctuated to +/-5nT and the Btotal field ranged from 4 to 7nT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K Australian Region 9 22233222 Cocos Island 5 22122210 Darwin 7 22223212 Townsville 10 32233222 Learmonth 13 33234321 Alice Springs 8 22233211 Norfolk Island 8 22233212 Gingin 12 32234322 Camden 9 22233222 Canberra 9 22233222 Launceston 14 33334322 Hobart 15 333341-- Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec : Macquarie Island 18 33345321 Casey 41 56653343 Mawson 44 56444653 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 60 (Unsettled) Canberra 67 (Active) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A Fredericksburg 16 Planetary 19 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K Fredericksburg 18 Planetary 22 4144 3444 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active 12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled 13 Dec 6 Quiet COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 9 December and is current for 10-11 Dec. The Earth is currently under the influence of a moderate to strong coronal hole solar wind stream. Observed regional geomagnetic conditions on Dec 10 ranged from Quiet to Active in the Australian region with minor storm periods observed at higher latitudes. The Australian Dst index was predominately negative dipping -40nT at its minimum during the UT day Dec 10. Expect the geomagnetic activity to gradually wane over the next two days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor 12 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor 13 Dec Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Variable conditions observed at low latitudes. Moderate depressions occurred in southern hemisphere mid to high-latitude regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 11-12 December, with periods of disturbance at high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 10 Dec -10 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 25% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 20% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Nov 3 Dec 24 Jan 23 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 11 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 12 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 13 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 7 December and is current for 8-11 Dec. Minor depressions noted in the Southern Indo-Pacific equatorial regions. Near predicted MUF values over the Northern Australian region. Minor depression observed over the Southern Australian region during local night and moderate depressions observed during the local day time hours. Periods of strong sporadic-E conditions observed in the Australian region throughout the UT day, 10 December. Expect similar conditions to prevail over the next two days with a return to near predicted values on day 3, 13 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 09 Dec Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A8.0 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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