Daily Report

(last updated 29 Feb 2020 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 29 February. There are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Through UT day 29 February, the solar wind speed ranged between 450 and 560 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 9 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) showed fluctuations in the range +6/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters may stay enhanced during UT days 1 to 2 March due to the effects of patchy coronal holes. Very low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K Australian Region 8 21122323 Cocos Island 8 21122323 Darwin 8 22123322 Townsville 9 21132323 Learmonth 9 21123323 Alice Springs 8 21122323 Gingin 10 22122423 Canberra 8 21132322 Hobart 10 22232412 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb : Macquarie Island 11 21333411 Casey 21 54432333 Mawson 32 33333347 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 18 (Quiet) Canberra 15 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 1101 1102 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 01 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 02 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in Australian region and quite to active conditions at high southern hemisphere latitudes were observed on UT day, 29 February. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active periods for the next two UT days, 01 to 02 March and then decline to quiet to unsettled levels through UT day, 03 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Mar Normal Normal Normal 02 Mar Normal Normal Normal 03 Mar Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 29 February were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Feb 5 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan -20 Feb -16 Mar -16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 01 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values 02 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values 03 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian regions for UT day 29 February were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs in this region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------