Daily Report

(last updated 22 Jun 2018 23:50 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Jun: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 80/20 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Jun. There is currently three numbered sunspots on the visible disk with region 2714 (N08W80) set to rotate behind the west limb. Region 2715 (N04W07) was quiet and has decreased in overall size during the last 24 hours and region 2713 (N04W62) was the source of minor B-class events. No earthward directed CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed continued to decline to ambient levels, beginning the UT day at ~380km/s and is currently ~330km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours after which there is an expected increase on 24Jun due to coronal hole effects. The magnitude of the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) has gradually increased, ranging between +/-2nT at 00UT to being mostly southward at -4nT at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next three days with the slight chance of C-class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K Australian Region 1 01100110 Darwin 2 11100111 Townsville 1 01100111 Learmonth 1 01100110 Alice Springs 1 00100111 Gingin 1 11100110 Canberra 0 00100100 Launceston 1 01100110 Hobart 1 00100110 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun : Macquarie Island 0 00100000 Casey 3 12110111 Mawson 12 22221235 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 3 1111 1101 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Jun 5 Quiet 24 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled 25 Jun 5 Quiet COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region for 22Jun. Quiet conditions are expected for 23Jun. Increased solar wind speed due to the influence of a north pole connected positive polarity coronal hole expected for 24Jun resulting in Unsettled conditions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 25Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 22Jun with some disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly values. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Jun 4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 30% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 4 Jun -1 Jul -2 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values 24 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values 25 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed at Equatorial regions during local night. Variable ionospheric support observed for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A8.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------