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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, May 05 2016 23:48 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 05 May 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 05 May: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 87/30 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 06 May 07 May 08 May Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27 COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels during the last 24 hours. The largest event during this period was a C1.7 flare from region 2542(N09E70). This flare peaked at 2248UT on 4 May. Solar wind stream has shown further weakening today. Solar wind speed decreased from 400 to nearly 360 km/s during the day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity may be expected to stay at very low to low levels during the next three days (6, 7 and 8 May). A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may start to strengthen the solar wind stream from late hours on 6 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 05 May : A K Australian Region 5 01132220 Cocos Island 3 10121210 Darwin 4 11122210 Townsville - -------- Learmonth 6 00233220 Alice Springs 4 01122220 Norfolk Island 3 11122110 Gingin 6 00233220 Camden 6 01133221 Canberra - -------- Launceston 8 01233321 Hobart 6 01133221 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May : Macquarie Island 8 00244210 Casey 9 23322222 Mawson 14 13233225 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne 2 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 2101 1111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 06 May 7 Quiet 07 May 15 Unsettled to Active 08 May 15 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels on 5 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 6 May with the possibility of rise to unsettled levels during late hours on this day due to possible start of a coronal hole effect. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 7 and 8 May due to the coronal hole effect. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 05 May Normal Normal-fair Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some minor to mild MUF depression periods observed in mid latitude regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on 6 May. Further depressions in MUFs may be expected on 7 and 8 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 05 May 34 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 30% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 30 May 47 Jun 46 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 06 May 35 Near predicted monthly values 07 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 20% 08 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 20% COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this region on 6 May. Further depressions in MUFs may be expected in this region on 7 and 8 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 04 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B2.6 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 82800 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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