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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Friday, Mar 24 2017 21:49 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 23 Mar 2017 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 23 Mar: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 72/8 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (23 March, UT). A B3.3 flare was observed at 1858 UT from region 2643(N08E50). As anticipated, the effect of the recurrent coronal hole is continuing to keep the solar wind stream strong. The solar wind speed varied between 600 km/s and 700 km/s during most parts of the UT day today. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz was at around -3 nT at the start of the day and then gradually rose to around +6 nT by the time of this report. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next two days. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days (24 to 26 March) with a slight chance of C-class activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K Australian Region 7 32222211 Cocos Island 4 21121211 Darwin 7 32222212 Townsville 8 32232211 Learmonth 8 32232212 Alice Springs 7 32222211 Norfolk Island 6 32221111 Culgoora 7 32222211 Gingin 8 32232221 Canberra 4 22221100 Launceston 11 33332311 Hobart 7 22332210 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar : Macquarie Island 9 33341100 Casey 12 33432222 Mawson 23 56422222 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 11 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A Fredericksburg 13 Planetary 16 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K Fredericksburg 19 Planetary 23 4424 4444 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 24 Mar 20 Quiet to active, isolated minor storm periods possible 25 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 26 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the positive polarity recurrent coronal hole has been keeping the geomagnetic activity enhanced. Although isolated periods of minor storm were observed on high latitudes, geomagnetic activity did not rise to the expected levels as the north-south component of IMF, Bz did not stay south during most parts of the UT day (23 March). Solar wind speed still being high (between 600 km/s and 700 km/s), there is potential for geomagnetic activity levels to rise to minor storm levels on 24 March, if Bz turns sufficiently southwards and for sufficiently long intervals of time. Due to the continued effect of the coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may rise up to active levels with a slight possibility of isolated minor storm periods in Aus/NZ regions on 24 March. Geomagnetic activity in this region is then expected to gradually decrease to unsettled and then to quiet levels through the days 25 and 26 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Mar Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 25 Mar Normal Normal Normal 26 Mar Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today (23 March, UT) with some periods of minor enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected on 24 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 25 and 26 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 23 Mar 18 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Feb 10 Mar 16 Apr 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 24 Mar 18 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 25 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values 26 Mar 22 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near predicted monthly values today (23 March, UT) with some periods of minor enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected in the Australian/NZ regions on 24 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 25 and 26 March in this region. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 22 Mar Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A1.8 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar Speed: 679 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 553000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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