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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Nov 30 2015 07:59 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 29 Nov 2015 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Nov: Very low Flares: B class flare Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 96/43 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 29 Nov UT. AR 2459 (N07E12) produced the largest flare of the day, a B6.3 event peaking at 07:37 UT. GONG H alpha telescopes recorded a filament eruption from AR 2459 preceding the B6.3 flare. A weak C class flare is possible today, 30 Nov. SOHO LASCO telescopes recorded a bright CME expanding toward the SE during 28 Nov. This CME is not Earthward directed. A faster halo CME was recorded expanding toward the SE starting during 07 UT on 29 Nov. This CME was composed of at least 2 ejections and may have been associated with the filament eruption preceding the B6.3 flare. A component of this halo CME is Earthward directed. The solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to about 450 km/s during 29 Nov. Coronal Hole 703 has rotated into a geoeffective location and faster wind is expected to impact Earth during 01-02 Dec. The magnitude of the IMF reached 15 nT during 29 Nov. The Bz component was predominantly northward but is currently weakly southward. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K Australian Region 7 12222232 Cocos Island 5 11221122 Darwin 8 12221233 Townsville 8 12222233 Learmonth 8 12232232 Alice Springs 8 12222233 Norfolk Island 6 21221132 Gingin 8 22232222 Camden 7 12222232 Canberra 5 11212122 Launceston 8 12322123 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov : Macquarie Island 8 01143122 Casey 34 56633233 Mawson 26 33443264 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : Darwin NA Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 4 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Melbourne 4 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 7 1011 3133 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 Nov 12 Unsettled 01 Dec 25 Active 02 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled throughout the Australian region during 29 Nov UT. The planetary magnetic index Kp reached 3 during 18-21 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled today, 30 Nov. A minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) is possible during 01-02 Dec due to the arrival of faster wind emanating from CH 703. A glancing blow from a halo CME launched during 29 Nov may cause active conditions during 02-03 Dec. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Nov Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor 02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere during 29 Nov UT. Conditions are expected to be similar today, 30 Nov. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Nov 44 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Oct 37 Nov 66 Dec 65 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values 01 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values 02 Dec 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 29 Nov UT. The conditions were more depressed at high mid-latitude stations. For example, the preliminary daily T index was 55 at Brisbane and 27 at Hobart. Similar conditions are expected today, 30 Nov. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Nov Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.6 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 3 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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