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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Jul 23 2016 23:02 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 22 Jul 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Jul: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 0/0 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 0/0 0/0 0/0 COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 22 July. Three C-class flares were produced by active region 2567. The largest flare is C6.6 peaking at 0651 UT. A 20-degree long disappearing filament was observed in the vicinity of N24E58. The CMEs detected on 20 July do not seem to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were found in the available SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate during the next 3 UT days, 23-25 July, due to a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567 will produce relatively weak M-class flares. During 22 July the interplanetary magnetic field Bt varied in the range 6-9 nT. Its Bz component was in the range from -7 nT to 8 nT, being predominantly negative since 0325 UT to 1750 UT. The sector boundary was crossed between 1500 UT and 1720 UT. The solar wind speed varied in the range 370-460 km/s. During the next UT day, 23 July, the solar wind speed is expected to be light to moderate. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K Australian Region 5 11222221 Cocos Island 5 11212221 Darwin 5 12122221 Townsville 6 12222221 Learmonth 6 11221231 Alice Springs 5 02221221 Norfolk Island 4 21121121 Culgoora 7 22222222 Gingin 7 11222331 Canberra 5 11222221 Launceston 7 11222331 Hobart 5 10122231 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul : Macquarie Island 11 00134431 Casey 10 33322222 Mawson 20 33333453 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 1001 1312 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled 24 Jul 7 Quiet 25 Jul 5 Quiet COMMENT: During 22 July geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region and reached Active to Minor storm levels in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during 23 July due to waning coronal hole effects and quiet during 24-25 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair 25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 21 July UT. Regional depressions are persisting. Sometimes strong depressions were observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Jul 31 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 31 Jul 42 Aug 40 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% 24 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% 25 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 22 July UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal or mildly depressed during the next 2 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.1 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 6 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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