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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Feb 22 2017 06:11 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 21 Feb 2017 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 21 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 83/24 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24 COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT day 21 February, with a few B-class flares, mainly from region 2638. No earthward directed CME was observed during this period. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from ~460 km/s to ~420 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal hole effect showed further weakening during this period. The IMF Bt stayed close to 5 nT throughout the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-5 nT, staying positive for relatively longer periods of time during the day. Another recurrent coronal hole is expected to start strengthening solar wind stream from late on 22 February for the following few days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days (22-24 February) with a slight chance of C-class flares. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K Australian Region 1 11100001 Cocos Island 0 11000000 Darwin 2 11100002 Townsville 2 12110011 Learmonth 2 21100002 Alice Springs 1 11000002 Norfolk Island 1 11000002 Culgoora 1 11100001 Gingin 1 21000001 Canberra 2 31000001 Launceston 2 12100102 Hobart 2 12100001 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb : Macquarie Island 0 11000000 Casey 11 34422111 Mawson 7 43211011 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 4 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 7 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 6 0321 1221 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 22 Feb 15 Quiet to Active 23 Feb 20 Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods possible 24 Feb 16 Unsettled to Active COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Australian region on UT day 21 February. A coronal hole is expected to start strengthening the solar wind stream from late on 22 February. The currently quiet geomagnetic conditions may rise up to active levels today (22 February UT) after the coronal hole effect kicks in. Activity may stay high at active levels on 23 and 24 February due to the effect of this this coronal hole. The recurrence pattern of this coronal hole does not show rises in geomagnetic activity to storm levels in the previous rotation, but the possibility of some minor storm periods on 23 February can not be completely ruled out. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 24 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 21 February with some periods of minor to mild depressions in some low and high latitude regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected from 22 to 24 February due to expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 21 Feb 13 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 35% during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 0 Feb 18 Mar 16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 22 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 20% 23 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 24 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian regions during UT day 21 February with some periods of minor to mild depressions in the southern and northern regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected in this region from 22 to 24 February due to expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 20 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.2 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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