Daily Report

(last updated 25 Jan 2022 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 25 Jan: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 101/49 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54 COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 January with three weak C-class flares. There are three numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 26-28 January, with a chance of more C-class flares. A CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery starting at 25/0300 UTC possibly associated with a small disappearing solar filament (GONG Halpha Learmonth) and B8.3 flare (AR 2935 at 23/0204 UT). Our initial model runs indicate that this CME could cause a mild impact at earth on early UT day 29 January. More updates on this event will be provided later. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed increased gradually from 300 km/s to 500 km/s, in response to mainly coronal hole effects. The peak total IMF range was 5 nT to 13 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-10 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced today (UT day 26 January) in response to the coronal hole effects. The solar wind is expected to begin to settle on 27 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K Australian Region 12 23333322 Cocos Island 9 12333222 Darwin 12 23333322 Townsville 14 13443322 Learmonth 13 22343332 Alice Springs 13 13343322 Gingin 12 22333332 Canberra 11 13333322 Hobart 13 23433322 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan : Macquarie Island 16 12253432 Casey 21 25533332 Mawson 23 34433435 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 6 (Quiet) Hobart 4 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 2 0000 1012 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 26 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled 27 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled 28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 25 January. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed conditions were due to perturbations in solar wind IMF conditions and enhancements in solar wind speed due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26-28 January. Isolated active periods are possible on 26 January due to coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 27 and most of 28 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Jan Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair 28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 26-28 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 25 Jan 66 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 34 Jan 36 Feb 39 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 26 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 27 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 28 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on 25 January. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 26-28 January. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 24 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------