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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Saturday, Feb 25 2017 13:35 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 24 Feb 2017 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 24 Feb: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 82/23 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 85/27 COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 Feb. Region 2638 (now at N16E13) produced a C1.1 flare that peaked at 0012 UT. Very low to low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 UT days (25-27 Feb). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available LASCO imagery. A corotating interaction region was observed in the solar wind up to 0400 UT, with the solar wind speed varying in the range 580-620 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuating in the range Bt = 9-12 nT. The Bz component reached values of -7 nT. Then the IMF became steady, Bt = 4-6 nT, Bz = -4/+4 nT, the solar wind speed increased, reached its maximum value of 660 km/s at 0513 UT and then it was gradually decreasing, now at 560 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during UT day 25 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K Australian Region 13 33334212 Cocos Island 10 33233211 Darwin 12 33234212 Townsville 11 33333212 Learmonth 17 43335222 Alice Springs 13 33334212 Norfolk Island 10 33233212 Culgoora 11 33333212 Gingin 15 43334222 Canberra 9 33233201 Launceston 19 44344313 Hobart 14 43343212 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb : Macquarie Island 18 32255311 Casey 33 56633223 Mawson 37 64444355 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 47 (Unsettled) Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A Fredericksburg 16 Planetary 20 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 9 1221 2422 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 25 Feb 12 Unsettled 26 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled 27 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels across the Australian region and reached storm levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 24 Feb. The observed increase in geomagnetic activity is due to the coronal hole effect. During the next three UT days, 25-27 Feb, geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease as the coronal hole effects wane. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 25 Feb. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected during UT day 25 Feb due to increased geomagnetic activity observed during UT day 24 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 24 Feb 27 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 0 Feb 18 Mar 16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 25 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 15% 26 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values 27 Feb 18 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian regions during UT day 24 Feb. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected in this region during UT day 25 Feb due to increased geomagnetic activity observed on 24 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 23 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.1 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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