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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Sunday, Apr 30 2017 10:55 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 29 Apr 2017 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Apr: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 77/16 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 Apr 01 May 02 May Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 77/16 75/13 75/13 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 29 April, with no notable flares. Very low level of solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days (30 April - 2 May) with a chance for C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery on UT day 29 April. The solar wind speed were near the nominal level of 400 km/s throughout the UT day. The IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT and 8 nT during the UT day. The Bz component varied between -7 nT and +4 nT. Bz had been mainly southwards for the last 7 hours of the UT day. The two day outlook (30 April - 1 May) is for the solar winds to remain near the nominal levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K Australian Region 4 11212022 Cocos Island 4 11211022 Darwin 3 01211021 Learmonth 5 12221022 Alice Springs 3 01211022 Norfolk Island 7 11322222 Culgoora 4 11212022 Gingin 7 12212033 Camden 5 11312022 Canberra 2 01211011 Launceston 6 12322022 Hobart 6 12312022 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr : Macquarie Island 6 11332011 Casey 13 34421033 Mawson 25 42332165 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 5 1221 2212 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 Apr 6 Quiet 01 May 6 Quiet 02 May 6 Quiet COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 29 April. Mostly quiet and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 30 April - 1 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Apr Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Apr Normal Normal Normal 01 May Normal Normal Normal 02 May Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the UT day 29 April. Similar conditions are expected for today 30 April ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Apr 16 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Mar 11 Apr 14 May 14 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 Apr 16 Near predicted monthly values 01 May 19 Near predicted monthly values 02 May 20 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: For the UT day, 29 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels over the Australian region. The outlook for the next three UT days (30 April - 2 May) is for near monthly predicted MUF levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Apr Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+09 (very high fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A8.5 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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