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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Aug 20 2019 04:58 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 19 Aug 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 19 Aug: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 68/2 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2 COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 19 August. The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 19 August, the solar wind speed was near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between -3 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mainly at background level for the next three UT days, 20-22 August, with slight enhancements possible for 20-21 August due to the passage of a weak coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K Australian Region 1 11110000 Cocos Island 0 01100000 Darwin 1 11101001 Townsville 2 11111100 Learmonth 1 11110000 Alice Springs 1 11110000 Gingin 1 10110100 Canberra 0 01010000 Launceston 1 11110000 Hobart 1 11010000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug : Macquarie Island 0 00010000 Casey 4 23210001 Mawson 5 33211001 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 6 3221 1211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 20 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled 21 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled 22 Aug 5 Quiet COMMENT: On UT day 19 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next three UT days, 20-22 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels, with Unsettled periods possible for 20-21 August due to weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Aug Normal Normal Normal 21 Aug Normal Normal Normal 22 Aug Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT days,20-22 August. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 19 Aug -4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul -2 Aug -13 Sep -15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 20 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values 21 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values 22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones during UT day 19 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days 20-22 August. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 18 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A5.9 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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