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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Aug 30 2016 14:57 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 29 Aug 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 29 Aug: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 88/32 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34 COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 29 August, with two C-class flares from AR2583 (N13W66). Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next two days, afterwards AR2583 will rotate around the west limb and activity will likely return to Very Low. No CMEs were observed using SOHO C2 imagery on 29 August. Solar wind speed varied between 375 and 325 km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +9/-7 nT during the same period with a slight increase in Bt rising from 5 to 8nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to get stronger on 30 August due to expected recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K Australian Region 3 10022112 Cocos Island 4 11022122 Darwin 5 21122112 Townsville 4 21022112 Learmonth 4 20022122 Alice Springs 3 10022112 Norfolk Island 3 11022011 Gingin 3 10012122 Camden 4 11022112 Canberra 3 10012112 Launceston 5 20122122 Hobart 3 10012122 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug : Macquarie Island 2 00002201 Casey 6 22212122 Mawson 26 32202247 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 20 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 0012 1111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 30 Aug 25 Active 31 Aug 12 Unsettled 01 Sep 12 Unsettled COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 27 August and is current for 29-30 Aug. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the UT day, 29 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels today, 30 August, due to an expected increase in the solar wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal hole. The following two days will likely remain Unsettled based on recurrence data. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 29 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 30 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor 31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair 01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 30 August to 01 September due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 29 Aug 24 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: No data available during local day. No data available during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 27 Aug 38 Sep 36 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 30 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 31 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 01 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 27 August and is current for 29-30 Aug. Mild MUF depressions were observed in Northern Australian region during the UT day, 29 August. Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in the Australian/NZ regions from 30 August to 01 September due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 28 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.1 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 304000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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