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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, Jul 02 2020 09:08 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 01 Jul 2020 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 01 Jul: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 68/2 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 July. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 01 July, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 320 km/s and 345 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 3 and 7 nT, the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the range +4/-4 nT and the solar wind particle density between 3 and 15 ppcc. During the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July, the solar wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K Australian Region 1 11100011 Cocos Island 1 01110010 Darwin 1 11100011 Townsville 2 11210011 Learmonth 2 11100021 Alice Springs 1 01100010 Gingin 1 11100010 Canberra 0 00000011 Hobart 2 11110011 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul : Macquarie Island 0 00010000 Casey 2 12100011 Mawson 12 32220135 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 2210 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 02 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible 03 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible 04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible COMMENT: On UT day 01 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July, with small possibility of isolated unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 02 Jul Normal Normal Normal 03 Jul Normal Normal Normal 04 Jul Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 01 Jul 1 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 30% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun -1 Jul -12 Aug -13 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values 03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values 04 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 01 July. The enhancements were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 30 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A1.2 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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