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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Feb 18 2020 09:17 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 17 Feb 2020 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 17 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 17 February. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days, 18-20 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 17 February, the solar wind speed ranged between 320 km/s and 374 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +3/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels on 18 February with mild increase on 19 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K Australian Region 4 11111222 Cocos Island 4 11111122 Darwin 4 11111222 Townsville 4 11111222 Learmonth 6 21111232 Alice Springs 4 22001222 Gingin 5 21102132 Canberra 4 11102122 Hobart 4 11102122 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb : Macquarie Island 2 00001112 Casey 11 33322232 Mawson 23 42222265 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : Darwin 20 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 3 2001 0111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled 19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled 20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 17 February were quiet in the Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for 18 to 20 February under the influence of a coronal hole expected late 18 or on 19 February. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 18-20 February. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 17 Feb -4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 35% during local night. Enhanced by 35% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan -20 Feb -16 Mar -16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 18 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values 19 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values 20 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 17 February were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Enhancements in MUFs were observed during nighttime in lower latitudes. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three days, 18-20 February. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 16 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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