Daily Report

(last updated 18 Nov 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 18 Nov: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 18 November. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through UT day 18 November, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 350 and 370 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 2.3 and 4.1 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between +3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density between 4 ppcc and 6 ppcc. Bz showed more variation during the late hours of the UT day. Solar wind stream is expected to remain at ambient levels through UT day 19 November and then show gradual strengthening through UT day 20 and possibly 21 November due to the effect of a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (19 to 21 November). ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K Australian Region 0 00000010 Cocos Island 0 00000000 Darwin 0 01000001 Townsville 1 11010011 Learmonth 0 00000011 Alice Springs 0 10000000 Gingin 0 00000010 Canberra 0 00000000 Hobart 0 00000010 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 4 13211011 Mawson 6 11012133 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : Darwin 2 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 2 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 3 1100 0112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 19 Nov 6 Quiet 20 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 21 Nov 16 Mostly unsettled to active COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels in the Australian/NZ regions and from quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic regions through UT day 18 November. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels through UT day 19 November and then show a gradual rise to unsettled and later active levels through UT days 20 and 21 November due to the effect of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Nov Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal 20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 21 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the low and mid latitude regions for UT day 18 November with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed in these regions. MUFs stayed near predicted monthly values for high latitude regions during this day. Similar ionospheric support is expected for UT day 19 November. Further MUF depressions may be observed through UT days 20 and 21 November due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 18 Nov -37 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Oct -20 Nov -16 Dec -17 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 19 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 20 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 30% 21 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 40% COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ region for UT day 18 November with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs stayed near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions during this day. Similar ionospheric support is expected for UT day 19 November. Further MUF depressions may be observed through UT days 20 and 21 November due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 17 Nov Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A7.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------