Daily Report

(last updated 22 Nov 2020 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Nov: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 88/32 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 90/34 92/37 94/40 COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 November. Three C flares occurred, the largest, a C3.3. New spot region AR 2785 (S23E76) was the source of this and another flare and is an Hsx/alpha group. AR 2783 (S22E03) maintains its Hsx/alpha classification. AR 2784 (N34E16) class is Bxo/beta and has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be low. A CME was observed in STEREO A images at 0324 UT and appears faint but broad in LASCO C3. This may be related to filament activity at S30E08 at 21/1540 UT. The solar wind speed range was 485-649 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +8/-10 nT, predominantly southward. The solar wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced on 23 Nov due to continuing coronal hole effects. Coronal hole effects should begin to wane on 24 Nov. There remains the chance of a weak CME impact on 23 or 24 Nov. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K Australian Region 16 23344332 Cocos Island 13 23334322 Darwin 13 23334322 Townsville 16 23344332 Learmonth 20 33345333 Alice Springs 15 33334332 Gingin 22 33345433 Canberra 17 24344332 Hobart 20 24345332 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov : Macquarie Island 39 33666432 Casey 31 46544333 Mawson 64 56555666 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 14 (Quiet) Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A Fredericksburg 19 Planetary 28 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 8 1210 3333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Nov 14 Quiet to Active 24 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled 25 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Quiet to minor storm geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to major storm conditions were observed in the southern high latitude region on UT day 22 November. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23 Nov due to continuing coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair 24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair 25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair conditions 23 to 25 November. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Nov -8 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 35% during local night. Niue Island Region: No data available. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 20% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Oct -13 Nov 3 Dec 5 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions at times. 24 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values 25 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 22 November. Sporadic E observed at Brisbane, Canberra, Sydney, Perth and Norfolk Is. during night hours and eastern locations 21-23 UT, at times blanketing. Spread F observed at Hobart 12-19 UT. Minor to moderate depressions possible at times 23-24 Nov. Sporadic E possible at times. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Nov Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B1.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------