Daily Report

(last updated 14 Oct 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 14 Oct: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 66/0 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2 COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 October. There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed was at background levels between 320 Km/s and 360 km/s but slightly increasing. The total IMF Bt varied between 3 to 8 nT. The north-south component of IMF Bz varied between +/- 5 nT with a more disturbed period between 1200UT-1600UT. During the next three UT days, 15-17 October, the solar wind speed is expected to be at nominal levels although a slight enhancement may be observed today, 15 October due to weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K Australian Region 6 11223221 Darwin 4 10222211 Townsville 6 11223221 Learmonth 6 12222221 Alice Springs 5 11222221 Gingin 5 11112231 Canberra 5 10123220 Launceston 8 -1223321 Hobart 5 11113310 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct : Macquarie Island 4 00103300 Casey 9 23312232 Mawson 18 41212263 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 2 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 5 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 1 Planetary 1 1000 0101 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled 16 Oct 5 Quiet 17 Oct 5 Quiet COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic activity varied mostly from Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 15-17 October with a chance of Unsettled periods today, 15 October due to possible weak coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal 16 Oct Normal Normal Normal 17 Oct Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 14 Oct -20 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep -5 Oct -15 Nov -16 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 15 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values 16 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values 17 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values. Cocos Island region observed minor to moderate MUFs depressions during the local day and night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 15-17 October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 13 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A3.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------