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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jul 25 2016 08:10 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 24 Jul 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 24 Jul: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2/-- 0620UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 82/23 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul Activity Low to moderate Low Very low to low Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 24 July. Active region 2567 produced two M-class flares: M2.0 peaking at 0620 UT and M1.9 peaking at 1743 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate during 25 July due to a chance that AR 2567 will produce M-class flares, then it will be Low and Very Low to Low because there is a chance that C-class flares may occur. During the last 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field Bt was almost constant, 5-8 nT, with its Bz component being predominantly positive and varying in the range from -6 to +7 nT. A relatively weak shock-like feature was observed in the solar wind at 1434 UT. The feature included an abrupt increase of the total magnetic field Bt from 5 nT to 13 nT, electron number density from 8 to 13 particles/cm3, and bulk velocity from 390 km/s to 460 km/s. During the feature crossing the Bz component varied in the range from -5 nT to +2 nT and it was negative from 1457 UT to 1740 UT. During the next UT day, 25 July, the solar wind is expected to be slightly enhanced due to coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K Australian Region 8 21111333 Cocos Island 9 10121433 Darwin 9 21222333 Townsville 9 21222333 Learmonth 10 20111443 Alice Springs 9 20121433 Norfolk Island 7 21111332 Culgoora 8 22212332 Gingin 15 21111454 Canberra 7 20111333 Launceston 11 21111443 Hobart 8 10111343 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul : Macquarie Island 6 10000342 Casey 15 32210453 Mawson 28 52222654 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : Darwin 2 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 2 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 5 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 14 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 8 2332 1122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 25 Jul 13 Quiet to Unsettled 26 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled 27 Jul 9 Quiet COMMENT: During 24 July geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region and reached Minor Storm levels in Antarctica. In the Australian region geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled during 25-26 July with isolated Active periods due to possible CME and coronal hole effects and Quiet on 27 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 26 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair 27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 24 July UT. Regional depressions are persisting. Strong depressions were observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 24 Jul 21 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: No data available during local day. No data available during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 31 Jul 42 Aug 40 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 25 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% 26 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% 27 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 25% COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 24 July UT. Sporadic E layers were observed. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal or mildly depressed during the next 2 days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 23 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.0 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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