Daily Report

(last updated 17 Jun 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 17 Jun: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 66/0 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0 COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. During this period the solar wind speed stayed between 330 and 350 km/s, total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 and 5 nT, the Bz component of IMF varied between +3 and -4 nT and the particle density showed a gradual increase from 1 ppcc to 7 ppcc. There are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Due to the effect of some patchy negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind stream may get slightly strengthened for the next three UT days (18 to 20 June). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next three UT days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K Australian Region 0 00011000 Cocos Island 0 01000000 Darwin 1 21100000 Townsville 1 01111001 Learmonth 1 01111000 Alice Springs 0 00001000 Culgoora 0 00010000 Gingin 0 00011000 Canberra 0 00010000 Launceston 1 00021000 Hobart 0 00011000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun : Macquarie Island 0 00011000 Casey 1 11111000 Mawson 6 41121110 Davis 2 11121100 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 4 1211 1101 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 18 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 19 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible 20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed at quiet levels through UT day 17 June. Due to the effects of small negative polarity coronal holes, global geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on UT days 18 and 19 June with some possibility of isolated active periods during this time. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected to return to unsettled and then to quiet levels through UT day 20 June. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Jun Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair 20 Jun Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs may be expected to stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (18 to 20 June). ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 17 Jun -7 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 35% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 25% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 2 Jun -11 Jul -12 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 18 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values 19 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values 20 Jun -7 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (18 to 20 June). ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 16 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A6.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------