Daily Report

(last updated 06 Dec 2019 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 06 Dec: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 06 December. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 350 to 370 km/s but showed a sudden increase to around 400 km/s after 1930 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between -5 nT and +4 nT and the solar wind density between 3 and 6 ppcc. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near background levels through UT day, 07 December. Slight enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible during UT days 08 and 09 December due to approaching negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K Australian Region 3 11111111 Cocos Island 2 11111100 Darwin 3 11111111 Townsville 3 12111111 Learmonth 5 21112212 Alice Springs 3 11111111 Gingin 4 21111112 Canberra 3 11111111 Hobart 3 12111111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec : Macquarie Island 1 11001000 Casey 17 45432122 Mawson 8 23111124 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 4 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K Fredericksburg 1 Planetary 1 0001100 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 07 Dec 5 Quiet 08 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible 09 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels in the Australian and mostly quiet with isolated unsettled and active periods in the Antarctic regions on UT day 06 December. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 07-09 December with the possibility of some unsettled periods on 08 and 09 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 06 December. Strong sporadic E and night time spread F were observed at mid latitudes. Mildly to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 06 Dec -35 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 30% during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 30% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Depressed by 30% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Nov -30 Dec -16 Jan -17 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 07 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% 08 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% 09 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 06 December. Strong sporadic E and night time spread F were observed at mid latitudes. Mildly to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region during 07-09 December. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 05 Dec Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A7.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------