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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Disturbed red ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Wednesday, Feb 21 2018 04:52 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 20 Feb 2018 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 20 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 70/5 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 Feb. Currently there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 21-23 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery for 20 Feb up to 20/1748 UT. The solar wind speed has decreased to slightly enhanced levels, decreasing from 530 to 430 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently near 450 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 5 to 2 nT and its Bz component varied between -4 nT and +3 nT. During the next UT day, 21 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal to slightly enhanced levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K Australian Region 2 21002100 Cocos Island 2 110012-- Darwin 3 210021-- Townsville 3 ---12111 Learmonth 3 21002200 Alice Springs 3 210021-- Culgoora 2 20002100 Gingin 5 210032-- Canberra 1 10002100 Launceston 3 21002200 Hobart 1 10002100 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb : Macquarie Island 2 200021-- Casey 14 433232-- Mawson 9 323221-- Davis 12 32432140 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 11 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 9 (Quiet) Canberra 15 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 11 Planetary 14 5411 2232 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 21 Feb 6 Quiet 22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled 23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet levels across the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled over the Antarctic region with isolated periods of Active levels during the UT day, 20 Feb. Expect similar conditions to prevail today, 21 February and Quiet to Unsettled conditions with a possibility of isolated Active periods for 22-23 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 20 Feb -4 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan -6 Feb 4 Mar 3 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 21 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values 22 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values 23 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during the UT day 20 Feb with isolated periods of depressions noted over the Southern Australian region during local night time hours. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian ionosonde sites. For 21-23 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions can occur, particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 19 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A2.9 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 499000 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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