Daily Report

(last updated 27 Feb 2019 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 27 Feb: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 71/6 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 February. The Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 28 February-02 March. Some minor impacts may be experienced today, 28 February due to the CME associated the filament observed around 23/2332UT. No other Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind parameters show the arrival of the anticipated corotating interaction region associated with a negative polarity coronal hole starting 27/0630UT. The Solar wind speed started increasing from 300 Km/s at 27/0630UT reaching 510 km/s at 27/1630UT, currently ~480 Km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) increased from 4 nT reaching 12 nT at 27/1327UT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-10 nT with short lived southward excursions. The solar wind is expected to further enhance today, 28 February due coronal hole effects and possible minor impacts from 23/2330UT CME. Enhanced solar winds should continue on UT day 01 March hen begin to wane on UT day 02 March. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K Australian Region 7 00113323 Cocos Island 4 10112222 Darwin 6 10112323 Townsville 7 01113323 Learmonth 7 00113323 Alice Springs 6 00112323 Gingin 7 10123223 Canberra 7 00113323 Launceston 9 11123333 Hobart 8 00113333 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb : Macquarie Island 15 00025532 Casey 12 23332323 Mawson 18 31113336 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Melbourne NA Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 12 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 2 Planetary 3 1000 0111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 28 Feb 25 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor to Major Storm periods. 01 Mar 15 Quiet to Active 02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 February and is current for 28 Feb only. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 27 February. Minor Storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions were caused by CIR and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels and at times reaching Minor Storm levels today, 28 February due coronal hole effects and possible minor impacts from 23/2330UT CME. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce a Major Storm period over the next 24 hours. Active conditions should continue on UT day 01 March. Then mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT day 02 March as the coronal hole effects begin to wane. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 28 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal 01 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal 02 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,28 February as a consequence of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 27 Feb -8 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 45% during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 25% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan -27 Feb -12 Mar -13 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 28 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 01 Mar -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 30% 02 Mar -20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: On UT day 27 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted levels to slightly depressed over the Australian region. Sporadic E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations. Slightly stronger depressions may be observed on UT days 28 February-2 March due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 26 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: <A1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------