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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Jun 27 2016 13:09 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 26 Jun 2016 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 Jun: Very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 77/16 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 77/16 80/20 80/20 COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 26 June. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are visible on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed CMEs noted on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed varied between 420km/s to 520km/s and is currently just under 500km/s. The total IMF strength was near steady ranging from 5-9nT during the last 24 hours, currently 6nT. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +7/-6nT. Expect the solar wind to return gradually to nominal levels as coronal hole effects subside. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K Australian Region 6 11122322 Cocos Island 4 11111221 Darwin 5 11122222 Townsville 7 21123321 Learmonth 5 11122222 Alice Springs 6 11122322 Norfolk Island 5 11122212 Gingin 8 11132332 Canberra 6 11132311 Melbourne 7 11132322 Launceston 8 11133321 Hobart 7 11-32311 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun : Macquarie Island 7 00142311 Casey 20 33232632 Mawson 21 33322355 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 11 (Quiet) Melbourne 21 (Quiet to unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 9 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 7 3221 1122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 Jun 6 Quiet 28 Jun 4 Quiet 29 Jun 4 Quiet COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region for the UT day, 26 June. Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated cases of minor storming. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 Jun Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 Jun Normal Normal Normal 28 Jun Normal Normal Normal 29 Jun Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative to monthly predicted values. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 Jun 19 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 25% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 32 Jun 44 Jul 43 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 25% 28 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 29 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 26 June and is current for 27 Jun only. Minor depressions to near predicted monthly values were observed in the Australian region during the UT day 26 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region with periods of little to no ionospheric support for HF communications. Expect similar conditions during the next three days. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: A9.3 ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events. -----------------------------------------------------------

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