Solar
FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Tuesday, Apr 16 2024 10:21 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 15 Apr 2024 23:30 UT)

Activity 15 Apr: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.7 0118UT possible lower West Pacific M1.0 0732UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M2.3 0842UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.2 0932UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.1 1358UT possible lower European M2.2 1417UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M4.0 1932UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 192/144

Solar Forecast

(last updated 15 Apr 2024 23:30 UT)

16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Apr was at the R1 level, due to an impulsive M4.0 flare from AR3639 (N29E56, beta) at 15/1932UT. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3639 is the largest and most magnetically complex region, producing several M class flares over 15-Apr. AR3634 (N25W43, beta) is the second largest on the disk and also produced M class flares. AR3643 (S12E59, beta) has shown signs of rapid growth over UT day 15-Apr. AR3637 (S10E39, beta), AR3638 (S16E46, beta) and AR3642 (N15W05, beta) also showed signs of growth. All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1, with a chance of R2 levels over 16-18 Apr. Solar radiation conditions were at the S0 level and are expected to remain at this level over 16-18 Apr. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 15-Apr. The solar wind speed increased slightly over UT day 15-Apr, partly due to a step increase observed at 15/1729UT likely associated with the arrival of a halo CME first observed on UT day 12-Apr. Solar wind speed ranged from 315 to 405 km/s. The wind speed is currently around 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. An increase in Bt and sustained periods of negative Bz were observed following the CME arrival. A CME observed on 14-Apr may cause enhanced solar wind conditions due to possible glancing impact late on 17-Apr, this impact is not expected to be significant. Solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over 16-18 Apr.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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